{ "ticker": { "uuid": "299e4db3-4d13-4622-bd6f-c75d16e5eef7", "symbol": "DVQQ", "name": "WEBs Defined Volatility QQQ ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.685, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.555, "architecture_energy": 27.309, "architecture_maturity": 65.304, "architecture_confidence": 83.845, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.29, "rotation_up": 30.67, "upward_expansion": 58.78, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 20.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.885833, 31.008407, 30.827798, 29.889087 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.7721, "trend_reference": 28.831493, "distance_from_trend": 0.101993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.855932, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228813, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.72579, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.185013, "excess_performance": -0.00244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101993, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042002, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228813, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.185013, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.327228, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6814, "relative_activity": 0.574483, "balance": 1.327228, "dry_up": 0.328574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037589, "annualized_volatility": 0.235404, "from_high_reference": -0.045264, "from_low_reference": 0.3389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.831493, "fair_value_reference": 25.855932, "structural_low": 23.73, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015716, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056622, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 23.440339, "volume": 18152, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 23.700743, "volume": 1661, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"2026-07-03", "close": 31.2049, "volume": 163, "typical_volume": 22718.2, "trend": 28.299891, "fair_value": 25.546056, "relative_strength": -0.993203, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.893327, "energy": 47.515487, "activity_lines": [ 31.351793, 31.426185, 30.000063, 29.129128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.5903, "volume": 1074, "typical_volume": 22670.25, "trend": 28.439828, "fair_value": 25.619766, "relative_strength": -1.566433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.428705, "energy": 47.225404, "activity_lines": [ 31.44254, 31.491482, 30.275328, 29.341413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.5813, "volume": 466, "typical_volume": 22432.35, "trend": 28.539688, "fair_value": 25.679544, "relative_strength": -0.594432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.300619, "energy": 36.252536, "activity_lines": [ 31.142713, 31.325049, 30.431097, 29.479572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.0695, "volume": 1558, "typical_volume": 16337.5, "trend": 28.60759, "fair_value": 25.731805, "relative_strength": -0.677078, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.795372, "energy": 27.330375, "activity_lines": [ 30.7282, 31.078307, 30.519253, 29.57827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.3664, "volume": 6751, "typical_volume": 13163.9, "trend": 28.71325, "fair_value": 25.78633, "relative_strength": -0.297737, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.410856, "energy": 21.922775, "activity_lines": [ 30.549293, 30.904329, 30.617347, 29.691742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.7721, "volume": 6814, "typical_volume": 11861.1, "trend": 28.831493, "fair_value": 25.855932, "relative_strength": -0.72579, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.554693, "energy": 27.309258, "activity_lines": [ 30.885833, 31.008407, 30.827798, 29.889087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }