{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29a05e86-d1cc-4790-8367-8ec799396129", "symbol": "PBL", "name": "Pollard Banknote Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.856, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.449, "architecture_energy": 13.808, "architecture_maturity": 20.379, "architecture_confidence": 58.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.83, "rotation_up": 35.14, "upward_expansion": 32.55, "deceleration": 45.35, "rotation_down": 17.72, "downward_expansion": 40.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.568666, 17.447417, 17.246024, 17.480116 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.559999, "trend_reference": 17.924306, "distance_from_trend": -0.020325, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.1471, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.931727, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096483, "excess_performance": -0.216904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020325, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272791, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006266, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033295, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096483, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.179046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39300, "relative_activity": 0.376473, "balance": 0.179046, "dry_up": 0.385813, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042064, "annualized_volatility": 0.200839, "from_high_reference": -0.247448, "from_low_reference": 0.121742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.924306, "fair_value_reference": 24.1471, "structural_low": 15.654227, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005953, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009927, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.190769, "worst_return": -0.117361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060032, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287797, "worst_return": -0.157314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.141505, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.245969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.355676, "worst_return": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.58, "volume": 47500, "typical_volume": 138105.0, "trend": 18.205191, "fair_value": 24.335603, "relative_strength": -18.536133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.090366, "energy": 29.57226, "activity_lines": [ 17.350103, 16.919554, 17.192922, 17.611956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.75, "volume": 62800, "typical_volume": 126715.0, "trend": 18.14405, "fair_value": 24.294548, "relative_strength": -16.901723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.478993, "energy": 23.993279, "activity_lines": [ 17.561267, 17.094791, 17.210225, 17.582589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.75, "volume": 38800, "typical_volume": 127890.0, "trend": 18.083574, "fair_value": 24.246095, "relative_strength": -16.358489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.758187, "energy": 19.055567, "activity_lines": [ 17.655314, 17.27235, 17.2356, 17.557167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.35, "volume": 20200, "typical_volume": 107590.0, "trend": 18.020716, "fair_value": 24.200532, "relative_strength": -17.015711, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.55992, "energy": 16.391476, "activity_lines": [ 17.582, 17.351768, 17.228435, 17.509839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.559999, "volume": 39300, "typical_volume": 104390.0, "trend": 17.924306, "fair_value": 24.1471, "relative_strength": -17.931727, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.448729, "energy": 13.807894, "activity_lines": [ 17.568666, 17.447417, 17.246024, 17.480116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }