{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29a5a93f-2635-4c01-a687-d9dd88f0655a", "symbol": "ESGO", "name": "Gold Miners Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.921, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.326, "architecture_energy": 28.076, "architecture_maturity": 49.415, "architecture_confidence": 54.346, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.26, "rotation_up": 28.26, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 63.41, "rotation_down": 36.17, "downward_expansion": 66.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.092267, 14.944431, 15.461674, 16.051193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.7938, "trend_reference": 16.858717, "distance_from_trend": -0.003851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.204604, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.645708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.311572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056841, "excess_performance": -0.110152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.645708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1053, "relative_activity": 0.470121, "balance": 0.781364, "dry_up": 0.364868, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063364, "annualized_volatility": 0.529332, "from_high_reference": -0.255871, "from_low_reference": 0.527556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.858717, "fair_value_reference": 10.204604, "structural_low": 13.4768, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023534, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.006285, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.180008, "worst_return": -0.053651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005559, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.042137, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.284261, "worst_return": -0.074373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.07736, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.083115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223947, "worst_return": -0.069227, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.4181, "volume": 1906, "typical_volume": 2772.45, "trend": 17.056163, "fair_value": 9.985249, "relative_strength": -9.218998, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.290101, "energy": 77.649376, "activity_lines": [ 14.892507, 15.261051, 16.031638, 16.602008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.5737, "volume": 1376, "typical_volume": 2703.65, "trend": 16.97216, "fair_value": 10.030722, "relative_strength": -14.803439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.104405, "energy": 83.857194, "activity_lines": [ 14.423107, 14.88246, 15.728815, 16.377333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.7725, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 2356.75, "trend": 16.91265, "fair_value": 10.084558, "relative_strength": -8.044444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.087289, "energy": 63.49188, "activity_lines": [ 14.45512, 14.788435, 15.576094, 16.23542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.133, "volume": 490, "typical_volume": 2319.4, "trend": 16.869663, "fair_value": 10.135949, "relative_strength": -13.67637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.449096, "energy": 68.071167, "activity_lines": [ 14.312847, 14.607653, 15.382968, 16.056088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.7938, "volume": 1053, "typical_volume": 2239.85, "trend": 16.858717, "fair_value": 10.204604, "relative_strength": -0.311572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.326325, "energy": 28.075894, "activity_lines": [ 15.092267, 14.944431, 15.461674, 16.051193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }