{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29ab7af8-db62-409f-af5a-32b6d2ad91b7", "symbol": "688315", "name": "Novogene Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.766, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.06, "architecture_energy": 10.018, "architecture_maturity": 51.223, "architecture_confidence": 60.498, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.16, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 15.37, "deceleration": 43.39, "rotation_down": 25.3, "downward_expansion": 60.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.303333, 13.031693, 13.348719, 13.64993 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.86, "trend_reference": 14.138955, "distance_from_trend": 0.050997, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.216594, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023435, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.708049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.050479, "excess_performance": -0.007275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023435, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066398, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03708, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100332, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050479, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27789984, "relative_activity": 1.816249, "balance": 0.39324, "dry_up": 1.417577, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089634, "annualized_volatility": 0.38021, "from_high_reference": -0.185307, "from_low_reference": 0.259322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.138955, "fair_value_reference": 15.216594, "structural_low": 11.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.031322, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.011346, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.332657, "worst_return": -0.165521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.123699, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.059102, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.393327, "worst_return": -0.28239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.11643, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063908, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.235591, "worst_return": -0.475097, "sufficient": false }, { 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15.438914, "relative_strength": -8.760383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.58558, "energy": 39.772654, "activity_lines": [ 12.845333, 12.96637, 13.491129, 13.833018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.94, "volume": 16945331, "typical_volume": 14385339.7, "trend": 14.108955, "fair_value": 15.357092, "relative_strength": -14.808035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.811694, "energy": 41.197843, "activity_lines": [ 12.579333, 12.714907, 13.315802, 13.689623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.72, "volume": 16088690, "typical_volume": 14548711.2, "trend": 14.086288, "fair_value": 15.281735, "relative_strength": -9.117023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.322607, "energy": 35.939184, "activity_lines": [ 12.61, 12.660857, 13.22657, 13.600013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.86, "volume": 27789984, "typical_volume": 15300759.6, "trend": 14.138955, "fair_value": 15.216594, "relative_strength": 3.708049, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.060404, "energy": 10.018253, "activity_lines": [ 13.303333, 13.031693, 13.348719, 13.64993 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }