{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "29aec102-84a7-4161-8918-976f493bb804",
    "symbol": "RBC",
    "name": "RBC Bearings Incorporated",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 54.642,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 3.761,
    "architecture_energy": 15.213,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.742,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.395,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.75,
        "rotation_up": 15.97,
        "upward_expansion": 40.74,
        "deceleration": 85.95,
        "rotation_down": 41.06,
        "downward_expansion": 34.74
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        571.508667,
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        588.73,
        582.051785
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 567.25,
    "trend_reference": 568.911333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.00292,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 366.301731,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.548587,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.720123,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.042701,
    "excess_performance": -0.082924,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00292,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.093392,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.548587,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.259099,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007201,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.188975,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042701,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.846279,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1302188,
      "relative_activity": 1.129892,
      "balance": 0.846279,
      "dry_up": 1.089078,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.073763,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.259268,
      "from_high_reference": -0.150424,
      "from_low_reference": 0.556241
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 568.911333,
      "fair_value_reference": 366.301731,
      "structural_low": 520.675,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.014856,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": 0.044396,
        "regime_survival": 0.307692,
        "best_return": 0.271963,
        "worst_return": -0.092639,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.096151,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.047224,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.222397,
        "worst_return": -0.037717,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.103975,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029868,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.210536,
        "worst_return": -0.092243,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.196789,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.112283,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.502033,
        "worst_return": 0.037657,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.01089,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.042395,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "energy": 48.205448,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1272967,
        "typical_volume": 1107397.55,
        "trend": 558.533,
        "fair_value": 359.641667,
        "relative_strength": 7.326786,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 34.006058,
        "energy": 20.407003,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 595.07,
        "volume": 1030975,
        "typical_volume": 1110023.2,
        "trend": 563.157667,
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        "relative_strength": 11.125497,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 31.1545,
        "energy": 16.997448,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 551.31,
        "volume": 1414474,
        "typical_volume": 1136086.35,
        "trend": 566.241667,
        "fair_value": 364.135449,
        "relative_strength": 1.600451,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 6.918646,
        "energy": 13.794448,
        "activity_lines": [
          577.202,
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          590.309476,
          581.986731
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 567.25,
        "volume": 1302188,
        "typical_volume": 1152489.15,
        "trend": 568.911333,
        "fair_value": 366.301731,
        "relative_strength": 0.720123,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 3.761088,
        "energy": 15.212946,
        "activity_lines": [
          571.508667,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}