{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29b04225-86fc-4492-9acb-4ad0a081d4c2", "symbol": "EVT", "name": "Evotec SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.133, "architecture_energy": 88.411, "architecture_maturity": 64.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.835, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 10.72, "upward_expansion": 24.33, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 78.59, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.5432, 4.007273, 4.438214, 4.636632 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.464, "trend_reference": 4.9948, "distance_from_trend": -0.306479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.035327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.616616, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.743095, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.436565, "excess_performance": -0.501204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071046, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.616616, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.407431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.436565, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3426743, "relative_activity": 1.000848, "balance": 0.639755, "dry_up": 1.812502, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14332, "annualized_volatility": 0.76355, "from_high_reference": -0.525479, "from_low_reference": 0.09068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.9948, "fair_value_reference": 9.035327, "structural_low": 3.176, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.028071, "positive_rate": 0.513514, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.001051, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.235829, "worst_return": -0.380793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.046931, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.210637, "worst_return": -0.26284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074035, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.132797, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.0662, "worst_return": -0.44324, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.256455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.288618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.150087, "energy": 63.428249, "activity_lines": [ 4.4564, 4.666218, 4.811143, 4.968495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.454, "volume": 4423525, "typical_volume": 3892618.05, "trend": 5.159267, "fair_value": 9.277673, "relative_strength": -39.673504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.277673, "energy": 80.89842, "activity_lines": [ 4.070267, 4.423491, 4.680514, 4.854318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.41, "volume": 3508005, "typical_volume": 3440511.5, "trend": 5.088867, "fair_value": 9.152865, "relative_strength": -40.85837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.649588, "energy": 87.499169, "activity_lines": [ 3.747867, 4.193927, 4.554971, 4.741462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.464, "volume": 3426743, "typical_volume": 3423840.25, "trend": 4.9948, "fair_value": 9.035327, "relative_strength": -40.743095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.132798, "energy": 88.411463, "activity_lines": [ 3.5432, 4.007273, 4.438214, 4.636632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }