{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29b2b304-e91c-4a16-9f3a-9072accd9c3c", "symbol": "601818", "name": "China Everbright Bank Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.918, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.268, "architecture_energy": 21.97, "architecture_maturity": 94.461, "architecture_confidence": 64.709, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.05, "rotation_up": 34.78, "upward_expansion": 20.38, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 25.49, "downward_expansion": 56.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.085788, 3.055988, 3.078065, 3.114587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.05, "trend_reference": 3.164437, "distance_from_trend": -0.036164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.166105, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.995355, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051781, "excess_performance": -0.008578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034412, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034152, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122443, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051781, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.369464, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1278396596, "relative_activity": 1.736259, "balance": 1.369464, "dry_up": 1.636668, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034444, "annualized_volatility": 0.16328, "from_high_reference": -0.250456, "from_low_reference": 0.057169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.164437, "fair_value_reference": 3.166105, "structural_low": 2.885063, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.001294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003083, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.098591, "worst_return": -0.063025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02052, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003332, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.116838, "worst_return": -0.058882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011628, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006531, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.103093, "worst_return": -0.086562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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1249885547, "typical_volume": 738825887.3, "trend": 3.175479, "fair_value": 3.16305, "relative_strength": -1.365396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.188608, "energy": 16.184331, "activity_lines": [ 3.083708, 3.058959, 3.084748, 3.122682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.05, "volume": 1278396596, "typical_volume": 736293538.95, "trend": 3.164437, "fair_value": 3.166105, "relative_strength": -6.995355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.268185, "energy": 21.969516, "activity_lines": [ 3.085788, 3.055988, 3.078065, 3.114587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }