{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29b329ac-6f19-403c-bd71-7bbdfff953a9", "symbol": "9939", "name": "Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.075, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.33, "architecture_energy": 16.851, "architecture_maturity": 63.289, "architecture_confidence": 76.167, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.97, "rotation_up": 17.02, "upward_expansion": 40.81, "deceleration": 87.57, "rotation_down": 38.3, "downward_expansion": 32.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.333333, 128.336364, 128.748525, 126.238291 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 128.0, "trend_reference": 122.042184, "distance_from_trend": 0.048818, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 128.966415, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007494, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.880326, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.201272, "excess_performance": -0.191062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048818, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007494, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018833, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100886, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.201272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2495022, "relative_activity": 0.632397, "balance": 0.88001, "dry_up": 0.634165, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046274, "annualized_volatility": 0.300534, "from_high_reference": -0.120275, "from_low_reference": 0.240023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.042184, "fair_value_reference": 128.966415, "structural_low": 103.223925, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003205, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.006068, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.061523, "worst_return": -0.041667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077706, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.095072, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.17407, "worst_return": -0.06006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.195803, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.066815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368932, "worst_return": -0.027027, "sufficient": true 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120.000537, "fair_value": 127.893882, "relative_strength": -19.922158, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.273543, "energy": 43.495547, "activity_lines": [ 133.066667, 132.136364, 128.307078, 124.356532 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 129.5, "volume": 3842641, "typical_volume": 5054612.35, "trend": 120.543426, "fair_value": 128.136554, "relative_strength": -19.469283, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.776173, "energy": 32.943498, "activity_lines": [ 131.3, 132.018182, 128.847816, 124.969401 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 127.0, "volume": 2790122, "typical_volume": 5042290.85, "trend": 120.955413, "fair_value": 128.351849, "relative_strength": -21.788795, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.776688, "energy": 21.812679, "activity_lines": [ 129.7, 131.309091, 129.043455, 125.385954 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 124.5, "volume": 1770079, "typical_volume": 4843050.1, "trend": 121.236498, "fair_value": 128.545442, "relative_strength": -23.751734, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.93423, "energy": 20.776579, "activity_lines": [ 127.6, 130.063636, 128.901371, 125.614637 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 124.5, "volume": 2952768, "typical_volume": 4231133.5, "trend": 121.596864, "fair_value": 128.744711, "relative_strength": -23.529216, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.928959, "energy": 20.852748, "activity_lines": [ 126.133333, 128.836364, 128.671563, 125.825186 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 128.0, "volume": 2495022, "typical_volume": 3945343.75, "trend": 122.042184, "fair_value": 128.966415, "relative_strength": -21.880326, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.330178, "energy": 16.850975, "activity_lines": [ 126.333333, 128.336364, 128.748525, 126.238291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }