{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29b59caa-19ff-40a8-9bd1-3276c2c24b4b", "symbol": "APARINDS", "name": "APAR Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.922, "architecture_energy": 50.936, "architecture_maturity": 68.907, "architecture_confidence": 67.124, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.24, "rotation_up": 42.91, "upward_expansion": 73.48, "deceleration": 76.99, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 7.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14929.6, 14834.036364, 14181.914286, 13289.410753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16631.0, "trend_reference": 11967.266667, "distance_from_trend": 0.389707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8389.030824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.98247, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 58.08291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.752476, "excess_performance": 0.796185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.389707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.98247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.26592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.580829, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116819, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.752476, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.633724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1039161, "relative_activity": 2.070399, "balance": 2.633724, "dry_up": 1.546408, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075267, "annualized_volatility": 0.5099, "from_high_reference": -0.003833, "from_low_reference": 1.445376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11967.266667, "fair_value_reference": 8389.030824, "structural_low": 8856.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049178, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.038595, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.25417, "worst_return": -0.044254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.19415, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.110521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.441619, "worst_return": 0.100131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.446004, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.359684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.495066, "worst_return": -0.136663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 37.586419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.190557, "energy": 45.904107, "activity_lines": [ 14417.2, 14496.236364, 13553.461905, 12618.989247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13889.0, "volume": 760813, "typical_volume": 459983.25, "trend": 11483.05, "fair_value": 8239.327998, "relative_strength": 39.942964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.53618, "energy": 28.094122, "activity_lines": [ 14088.866667, 14439.345455, 13680.928571, 12785.532258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14348.0, "volume": 874506, "typical_volume": 474487.5, "trend": 11685.833333, "fair_value": 8308.14735, "relative_strength": 39.431919, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.393155, "energy": 26.354975, "activity_lines": [ 14072.933333, 14443.381818, 13835.466667, 12970.367742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16631.0, "volume": 1039161, "typical_volume": 501913.35, "trend": 11967.266667, "fair_value": 8389.030824, "relative_strength": 58.08291, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.922273, "energy": 50.935536, "activity_lines": [ 14929.6, 14834.036364, 14181.914286, 13289.410753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }