{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29baeec1-1af7-4e32-a1fe-b20098e60b78", "symbol": "600157", "name": "Wintime Energy Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.488, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.174, "architecture_energy": 41.789, "architecture_maturity": 23.968, "architecture_confidence": 77.168, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.21, "rotation_up": 22.86, "upward_expansion": 10.4, "deceleration": 55.96, "rotation_down": 48.43, "downward_expansion": 72.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.574, 1.578182, 1.639286, 1.67714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.704667, "distance_from_trend": -0.0614, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.474252, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.614127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053254, "excess_performance": -0.010051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0614, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2200145214, "relative_activity": 0.783432, "balance": 0.719023, "dry_up": 0.82072, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059615, "annualized_volatility": 0.349515, "from_high_reference": -0.238095, "from_low_reference": 0.134752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.704667, "fair_value_reference": 1.474252, "structural_low": 1.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.014599, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.00809, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.091603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014599, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.02597, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.145299, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027282, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008259, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.398082, "worst_return": -0.145985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -6.946229, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.558549, "energy": 67.095503, "activity_lines": [ 1.573333, 1.642545, 1.69881, 1.712731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.53, "volume": 2186996383, "typical_volume": 3820537058.55, "trend": 1.705667, "fair_value": 1.47127, "relative_strength": -2.468511, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.248563, "energy": 78.729107, "activity_lines": [ 1.550667, 1.613273, 1.678143, 1.701247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.56, "volume": 2804851595, "typical_volume": 3445274569.2, "trend": 1.704333, "fair_value": 1.472072, "relative_strength": -1.919237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.393496, "energy": 69.764294, "activity_lines": [ 1.549333, 1.594727, 1.661762, 1.691849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.58, "volume": 2027461466, "typical_volume": 3007925113.85, "trend": 1.703667, "fair_value": 1.473066, "relative_strength": -1.094023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.641908, "energy": 52.454064, "activity_lines": [ 1.56, 1.583273, 1.648714, 1.683828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 2200145214, "typical_volume": 2808343234.95, "trend": 1.704667, "fair_value": 1.474252, "relative_strength": -2.614127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.174182, "energy": 41.789328, "activity_lines": [ 1.574, 1.578182, 1.639286, 1.67714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }