{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29beb920-2973-4ec3-b2ae-38b60460eb38", "symbol": "ALCJ", "name": "Crossject Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.122, "architecture_energy": 80.616, "architecture_maturity": 29.776, "architecture_confidence": 78.378, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.04, "rotation_up": 9.18, "upward_expansion": 18.49, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 81.25, "downward_expansion": 96.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.536133, 1.639455, 1.786886, 1.852929 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.498, "trend_reference": 1.925933, "distance_from_trend": -0.222195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.413931, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.379436, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.554275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263882, "excess_performance": -0.317193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222195, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083907, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.379436, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258489, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.409791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 956339, "relative_activity": 0.86731, "balance": 1.409791, "dry_up": 0.741066, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128171, "annualized_volatility": 0.416635, "from_high_reference": -0.444156, "from_low_reference": 0.112927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.925933, "fair_value_reference": 2.413931, "structural_low": 1.462, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.021711, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.026505, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.925581, "worst_return": -0.544008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.085515, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.080833, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.614865, "worst_return": -0.231818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.109954, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.306548, "worst_return": -0.079686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.198469, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060287, 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"energy": 57.841115, "activity_lines": [ 1.851867, 1.933818, 1.965048, 1.987806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.724, "volume": 1256648, "typical_volume": 1202821.95, "trend": 2.012067, "fair_value": 2.470656, "relative_strength": -15.960477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.674117, "energy": 66.647483, "activity_lines": [ 1.801333, 1.890945, 1.940248, 1.968434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.63, "volume": 470374, "typical_volume": 1118033.5, "trend": 1.997233, "fair_value": 2.457547, "relative_strength": -20.425937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.92227, "energy": 72.766877, "activity_lines": [ 1.733067, 1.834255, 1.907524, 1.943785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.504, "volume": 937980, "typical_volume": 1113793.6, "trend": 1.974033, "fair_value": 2.442092, "relative_strength": -26.692889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.508484, "energy": 78.787644, "activity_lines": [ 1.642933, 1.759745, 1.8648, 1.911963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.514, "volume": 903851, "typical_volume": 1120029.85, "trend": 1.953, "fair_value": 2.427854, "relative_strength": -27.215416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.702053, "energy": 79.553814, "activity_lines": [ 1.5816, 1.694364, 1.825533, 1.882284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.498, "volume": 956339, "typical_volume": 1102649.75, "trend": 1.925933, "fair_value": 2.413931, "relative_strength": -29.554275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.121859, "energy": 80.615958, "activity_lines": [ 1.536133, 1.639455, 1.786886, 1.852929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }