{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29c08607-1e47-4268-a803-83d8ac6e7802", "symbol": "688058", "name": "Beijing Baolande Software Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.699, "architecture_energy": 54.354, "architecture_maturity": 66.926, "architecture_confidence": 92.708, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 25.82, "upward_expansion": 9.15, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 53.61, "downward_expansion": 82.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.189334, 21.303091, 23.368905, 25.024882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.700001, "trend_reference": 27.129666, "distance_from_trend": -0.163278, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.400197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.382327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271969, "excess_performance": -0.228765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163278, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271969, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7004956, "relative_activity": 1.325512, "balance": 0.520159, "dry_up": 1.169322, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100678, "annualized_volatility": 0.426426, "from_high_reference": -0.365922, "from_low_reference": 0.252069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.129666, "fair_value_reference": 28.400197, "structural_low": 18.129999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.064487, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.02227, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.403446, "worst_return": -0.258948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00557, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.030089, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.789501, "worst_return": -0.319186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.117316, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.122514, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.016354, "worst_return": -0.410866, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 21.299999, "volume": 5405613, "typical_volume": 5823045.2, "trend": 27.944333, "fair_value": 28.831237, "relative_strength": -27.823812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.120441, "energy": 88.427637, "activity_lines": [ 21.656666, 23.162909, 25.427571, 26.786064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.73, "volume": 5798926, "typical_volume": 5692540.05, "trend": 27.715333, "fair_value": 28.699832, "relative_strength": -28.487733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.348337, "energy": 90.403492, "activity_lines": [ 20.868, 22.240727, 24.725428, 26.256107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.1, "volume": 6316866, "typical_volume": 5472854.15, "trend": 27.458, "fair_value": 28.579367, "relative_strength": -31.045253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.138086, "energy": 86.264422, "activity_lines": [ 20.125333, 21.395454, 24.029619, 25.700279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.57, "volume": 5597382, "typical_volume": 5312749.9, "trend": 27.280666, "fair_value": 28.481205, "relative_strength": -21.89699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.412582, "energy": 64.026781, "activity_lines": [ 20.490667, 21.177818, 23.622857, 25.320408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.700001, "volume": 7004956, "typical_volume": 5284715.4, "trend": 27.129666, "fair_value": 28.400197, "relative_strength": -19.382327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.698989, "energy": 54.354125, "activity_lines": [ 21.189334, 21.303091, 23.368905, 25.024882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }