{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29c2c939-cba1-45c1-af32-1c16ad900ef1", "symbol": "SPYU", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Utilities UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.134, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.284, "architecture_energy": 29.88, "architecture_maturity": 26.848, "architecture_confidence": 57.276, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.47, "rotation_up": 45.53, "upward_expansion": 68.3, "deceleration": 62.06, "rotation_down": 20.25, "downward_expansion": 9.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 264.150004, 264.220912, 261.725001, 259.985915 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 262.200012, "trend_reference": 256.471667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022335, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 192.985128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.358654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.827714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061324, "excess_performance": -0.003316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054716, "read": "Rising" 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242.100006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.000133, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.004074, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.071878, "worst_return": -0.066923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.05582, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.024172, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.10205, "worst_return": -0.080777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047398, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004701, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.191752, "worst_return": -0.037308, "sufficient": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.809798, "energy": 61.025429, "activity_lines": [ 264.100004, 260.889092, 259.409524, 257.003226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 268.25, "volume": 5670, "typical_volume": 7618.85, "trend": 252.876667, "fair_value": 190.920769, "relative_strength": 11.669326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.626112, "energy": 70.92186, "activity_lines": [ 265.93667, 262.655456, 260.34381, 258.092581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 269.100006, "volume": 3066, "typical_volume": 7171.8, "trend": 254.445001, "fair_value": 191.613975, "relative_strength": 10.301365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.326362, "energy": 70.868356, "activity_lines": [ 267.463338, 264.365457, 261.33762, 259.139248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 260.899994, "volume": 7835, "typical_volume": 7215.25, "trend": 255.531667, "fair_value": 192.297821, "relative_strength": 4.393896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.337559, "energy": 39.213738, "activity_lines": [ 265.503335, 264.202728, 261.470715, 259.555699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 262.200012, "volume": 3870, "typical_volume": 6598.4, "trend": 256.471667, "fair_value": 192.985128, "relative_strength": 1.827714, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.284376, "energy": 29.879589, "activity_lines": [ 264.150004, 264.220912, 261.725001, 259.985915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }