{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29c3a959-79dd-4c4a-86ae-5274cd61a6f1", "symbol": "RWAY", "name": "Runway Growth Finance Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.415, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.982, "architecture_energy": 12.506, "architecture_maturity": 35.591, "architecture_confidence": 60.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.35, "rotation_up": 32.0, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 22.59, "downward_expansion": 60.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.913, 5.733636, 5.886236, 6.102307 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.84, "trend_reference": 6.546166, "distance_from_trend": 0.044886, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.173554, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163155, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.911145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150447, "excess_performance": -0.337901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044886, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166631, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.143148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4187949, "relative_activity": 1.312905, "balance": 1.143148, "dry_up": 0.944786, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068471, "annualized_volatility": 0.468061, "from_high_reference": -0.287084, "from_low_reference": 0.317919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.546166, "fair_value_reference": 8.173554, "structural_low": 5.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043437, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010085, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.08436, "worst_return": -0.001749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00269, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003791, "worst_return": 0.001588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047285, "worst_return": -0.097348, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3176218.15, "trend": 6.692327, "fair_value": 8.200703, "relative_strength": -36.134397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.544662, "energy": 59.028647, "activity_lines": [ 5.437667, 5.578182, 5.864337, 6.16634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.46, "volume": 1991334, "typical_volume": 3112807.5, "trend": 6.600189, "fair_value": 8.184757, "relative_strength": -34.374102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.323302, "energy": 53.363212, "activity_lines": [ 5.450667, 5.522636, 5.80757, 6.086835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.84, "volume": 4187949, "typical_volume": 3189833.95, "trend": 6.546166, "fair_value": 8.173554, "relative_strength": -20.911145, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.982231, "energy": 12.50559, "activity_lines": [ 5.913, 5.733636, 5.886236, 6.102307 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }