{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "29c47170-35d2-4239-972f-dcfecaf5bd5e",
    "symbol": "MDTN",
    "name": "Medtronic plc",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": 12.033,
    "architecture_energy": 29.201,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.927,
    "architecture_confidence": 43.035,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.35,
        "rotation_up": 48.89,
        "upward_expansion": 38.43,
        "deceleration": 43.45,
        "rotation_down": 14.08,
        "downward_expansion": 44.43
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1477.2,
        1452.775274,
        1424.661687,
        1454.596322
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 1498.0,
    "trend_reference": 1517.601451,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.012916,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1578.536776,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05102,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -9.512682,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.159449,
    "excess_performance": -0.104782,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012916,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.069881,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05102,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076641,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095127,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.1647,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.159449,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.200159,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 71,
      "relative_activity": 0.061718,
      "balance": 0.200159,
      "dry_up": 0.183414,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032253,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.222369,
      "from_high_reference": -0.19163,
      "from_low_reference": 0.132862
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1517.601451,
      "fair_value_reference": 1578.536776,
      "structural_low": 1322.314453,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.06919,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.070801,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.06919,
        "worst_return": -0.06919,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.009162,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03458,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.009162,
        "worst_return": -0.009162,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.086833,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.096424,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.086833,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
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        "worst_return": -0.075446,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "return": 0.031639,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
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      {
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1430.0,
        "volume": 5,
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        "trend": 1536.412104,
        "fair_value": 1577.832518,
        "relative_strength": -13.787269,
        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -13.399187,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1496.25,
        "volume": 454,
        "typical_volume": 1152.2,
        "trend": 1526.977611,
        "fair_value": 1578.1296,
        "relative_strength": -10.058716,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 11.721279,
        "energy": 27.04607,
        "activity_lines": [
          1463.816667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1498.0,
        "volume": 71,
        "typical_volume": 1150.4,
        "trend": 1517.601451,
        "fair_value": 1578.536776,
        "relative_strength": -9.512682,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 12.032747,
        "energy": 29.200816,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}