{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29c9aadb-bddd-4ffa-a146-b7ffc3015e43", "symbol": "PNDX-B", "name": "Pandox AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.784, "architecture_energy": 18.265, "architecture_maturity": 41.463, "architecture_confidence": 85.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.4, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 19.44, "deceleration": 38.24, "rotation_down": 35.43, "downward_expansion": 58.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 173.36, 172.716364, 173.7, 175.925465 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 174.399994, "trend_reference": 179.77091, "distance_from_trend": -0.029876, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 166.47317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047616, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.134793, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107721, "excess_performance": -0.169215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029876, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047616, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04176, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107721, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 418051, "relative_activity": 0.851499, "balance": 0.331615, "dry_up": 0.849184, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047724, "annualized_volatility": 0.276198, "from_high_reference": -0.129484, "from_low_reference": 0.088145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 179.77091, "fair_value_reference": 166.47317, "structural_low": 164.399994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.04081, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.042992, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.290378, "worst_return": -0.09058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.045024, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014254, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.287111, "worst_return": -0.076056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057722, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.010944, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.197452, "worst_return": -0.116197, "sufficient": true 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 169.800003, "volume": 432568, "typical_volume": 546618.8, "trend": 181.936668, "fair_value": 165.369298, "relative_strength": -13.056355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.74452, "energy": 23.802906, "activity_lines": [ 172.106667, 171.909091, 174.320715, 177.377332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 169.800003, "volume": 459017, "typical_volume": 528551.9, "trend": 181.094546, "fair_value": 165.707718, "relative_strength": -14.145989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.618306, "energy": 25.015049, "activity_lines": [ 171.440001, 171.421819, 173.688486, 176.594322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 176.800003, "volume": 358020, "typical_volume": 494285.45, "trend": 180.472728, "fair_value": 166.107638, "relative_strength": -11.592391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.368327, "energy": 20.750712, "activity_lines": [ 172.920002, 172.276365, 173.794828, 176.317254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 174.399994, "volume": 418051, "typical_volume": 490958.6, "trend": 179.77091, "fair_value": 166.47317, "relative_strength": -14.134793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.783922, "energy": 18.265395, "activity_lines": [ 173.36, 172.716364, 173.7, 175.925465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }