{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29cbc353-4539-40f7-a829-efc5ab17c5bb", "symbol": "CLS", "name": "Celestica Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.047, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.525, "architecture_energy": 28.76, "architecture_maturity": 33.025, "architecture_confidence": 56.255, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.67, "rotation_up": 17.98, "upward_expansion": 19.65, "deceleration": 55.29, "rotation_down": 57.4, "downward_expansion": 42.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 447.784005, 465.354908, 487.521522, 476.253999 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 443.51001, "trend_reference": 457.381333, "distance_from_trend": -0.030328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 206.122115, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.151686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.78336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056932, "excess_performance": -0.063489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040028, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.151686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.925254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056932, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.47003, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2213100, "relative_activity": 1.27682, "balance": 1.47003, "dry_up": 1.169149, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142047, "annualized_volatility": 0.558457, "from_high_reference": -0.249877, "from_low_reference": 0.844193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 457.381333, "fair_value_reference": 206.122115, "structural_low": 330.790009, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.04256, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.041959, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.353437, "worst_return": -0.165046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089627, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.073482, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.293179, "worst_return": -0.166339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.624495, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.510949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.540863, "worst_return": -0.107293, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 1711030.0, "trend": 454.971334, "fair_value": 200.668718, "relative_strength": -6.317531, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.214676, "energy": 25.791548, "activity_lines": [ 454.322003, 479.939633, 493.579093, 476.525074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 463.869995, "volume": 2384500, "typical_volume": 1737690.0, "trend": 456.610333, "fair_value": 203.459102, "relative_strength": 0.973835, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.473231, "energy": 21.026159, "activity_lines": [ 453.956002, 474.097087, 491.761759, 477.099181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 443.51001, "volume": 2213100, "typical_volume": 1733290.0, "trend": 457.381333, "fair_value": 206.122115, "relative_strength": -6.78336, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.524912, "energy": 28.760206, "activity_lines": [ 447.784005, 465.354908, 487.521522, 476.253999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }