{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29cf2b36-c69f-49aa-a645-3bfdc3e9d135", "symbol": "300879", "name": "Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.076, "architecture_energy": 61.484, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.942, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 11.83, "deceleration": 60.65, "rotation_down": 50.38, "downward_expansion": 82.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.972, 16.161636, 18.08619, 19.937204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.139999, "trend_reference": 22.463, "distance_from_trend": -0.236968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.211409, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191944, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.950898, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.390253, "excess_performance": -0.397652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191944, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.390253, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.396106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23709682, "relative_activity": 1.211336, "balance": 0.396106, "dry_up": 1.034085, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106678, "annualized_volatility": 0.533211, "from_high_reference": -0.577312, "from_low_reference": 0.230438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.463, "fair_value_reference": 21.211409, "structural_low": 13.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.002418, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.010543, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.332036, "worst_return": -0.242059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003224, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018682, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.373799, "worst_return": -0.18464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043662, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019835, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.049734, "worst_return": -0.326144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.278708, "energy": 90.653463, "activity_lines": [ 15.848, 16.880909, 19.560143, 21.357204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.63, "volume": 21946658, "typical_volume": 21077661.25, "trend": 23.315333, "fair_value": 21.232264, "relative_strength": -47.640564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.210139, "energy": 80.906113, "activity_lines": [ 15.322, 16.268909, 18.896429, 20.767011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 19252230, "typical_volume": 20844247.2, "trend": 22.886667, "fair_value": 21.211936, "relative_strength": -40.173403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.068601, "energy": 65.79202, "activity_lines": [ 15.506, 16.089637, 18.424952, 20.307957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.139999, "volume": 23709682, "typical_volume": 19573169.7, "trend": 22.463, "fair_value": 21.211409, "relative_strength": -38.950898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.075966, "energy": 61.484273, "activity_lines": [ 15.972, 16.161636, 18.08619, 19.937204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }