{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29d10ec4-526f-4865-ab6e-29d28a24cb2f", "symbol": "DUK", "name": "Duke Energy Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.253, "architecture_energy": 6.322, "architecture_maturity": 8.171, "architecture_confidence": 43.728, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.66, "rotation_up": 32.87, "upward_expansion": 52.84, "deceleration": 55.64, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 26.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.202, 126.4813, 125.8612, 126.04188 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 124.85, "trend_reference": 125.391804, "distance_from_trend": -0.004321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.894429, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.313277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045076, "excess_performance": -0.080549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025783, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789747, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26917061, "relative_activity": 1.558911, "balance": 0.789747, "dry_up": 1.173577, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04047, "annualized_volatility": 0.193662, "from_high_reference": -0.060869, "from_low_reference": 0.118161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.391804, "fair_value_reference": 106.894429, "structural_low": 118.092528, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004228, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008085, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.0525, "worst_return": -0.068292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036615, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.070867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110348, "worst_return": -0.037583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097777, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.027563, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.109927, "worst_return": -0.072018, "sufficient": false 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.477881, "energy": 23.335649, "activity_lines": [ 126.428667, 125.762154, 125.691247, 125.59884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 130.52, "volume": 18149122, "typical_volume": 17733644.95, "trend": 124.703682, "fair_value": 106.33475, "relative_strength": -1.37428, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.833572, "energy": 38.732945, "activity_lines": [ 127.778667, 126.774786, 126.07822, 126.007727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.43, "volume": 19343499, "typical_volume": 17199005.05, "trend": 125.046953, "fair_value": 106.628874, "relative_strength": -5.999006, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.412953, "energy": 14.155928, "activity_lines": [ 126.988, 126.681794, 125.982597, 126.054586 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.85, "volume": 26917061, "typical_volume": 17266578.3, "trend": 125.391804, "fair_value": 106.894429, "relative_strength": -9.313277, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.252506, "energy": 6.321707, "activity_lines": [ 126.202, 126.4813, 125.8612, 126.04188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }