{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29d2da3a-63ce-4353-920c-1565e1c62d26", "symbol": "ESGH", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe ESG Selection UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.52, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.706, "architecture_energy": 63.767, "architecture_maturity": 75.996, "architecture_confidence": 58.316, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.46, "rotation_up": 50.91, "upward_expansion": 78.31, "deceleration": 70.15, "rotation_down": 29.29, "downward_expansion": 16.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.004333, 30.963091, 30.399143, 29.835118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.355, "trend_reference": 29.228167, "distance_from_trend": 0.072767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.426282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.272604, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110895, "excess_performance": -0.059997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012816, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110895, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.748781, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7696, "relative_activity": 0.555487, "balance": 1.748781, "dry_up": 0.880201, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017222, "annualized_volatility": 0.15093, "from_high_reference": -0.006181, "from_low_reference": 0.240308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.228167, "fair_value_reference": 25.426282, "structural_low": 25.709999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.009984, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.003452, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.077176, "worst_return": -0.097962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.039509, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.044294, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.108905, "worst_return": -0.012756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071119, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056407, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.14466, "worst_return": -0.059866, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011994, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.207883, "energy": 84.673959, "activity_lines": [ 30.980001, 30.708637, 29.919119, 29.450162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.775, "volume": 3934, "typical_volume": 17873.45, "trend": 29.018167, "fair_value": 25.303846, "relative_strength": -2.730254, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.086326, "energy": 69.599734, "activity_lines": [ 30.913334, 30.782546, 30.070286, 29.57085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.885, "volume": 29225, "typical_volume": 17880.9, "trend": 29.125667, "fair_value": 25.363558, "relative_strength": -2.993396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.844355, "energy": 56.916704, "activity_lines": [ 30.878334, 30.84, 30.2205, 29.691291 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.355, "volume": 7696, "typical_volume": 13854.5, "trend": 29.228167, "fair_value": 25.426282, "relative_strength": -4.272604, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.706324, "energy": 63.766503, "activity_lines": [ 31.004333, 30.963091, 30.399143, 29.835118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }