{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29d6fc1f-c0ad-4052-9bbc-c618f119bd51", "symbol": "601158", "name": "Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.442, "architecture_energy": 23.711, "architecture_maturity": 96.633, "architecture_confidence": 63.935, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.2, "rotation_up": 32.89, "upward_expansion": 19.17, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.34, "downward_expansion": 53.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.158, 4.111215, 4.139435, 4.214949 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 4.315999, "distance_from_trend": -0.045412, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.739418, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.166495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098468, "excess_performance": -0.055264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045412, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034606, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.090319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39369658, "relative_activity": 1.054433, "balance": 1.090319, "dry_up": 1.240554, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032925, "annualized_volatility": 0.138256, "from_high_reference": -0.160896, "from_low_reference": 0.053708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.315999, "fair_value_reference": 4.739418, "structural_low": 3.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.002012, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": -0.011352, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.134703, "worst_return": -0.118712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009664, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026008, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.045455, "worst_return": -0.071759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008037, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015828, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.096339, "worst_return": -0.121076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.159333, 4.107795, 4.148673, 4.228346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 39369658, "typical_volume": 37337275.2, "trend": 4.315999, "fair_value": 4.739418, "relative_strength": -7.166495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.4423, "energy": 23.71056, "activity_lines": [ 4.158, 4.111215, 4.139435, 4.214949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }