{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29d7037a-281a-435e-93f2-2f6469cefc36", "symbol": "WMT", "name": "Walmart Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.751, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.561, "architecture_energy": 42.904, "architecture_maturity": 12.479, "architecture_confidence": 89.12, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.1, "rotation_up": 18.11, "upward_expansion": 5.71, "deceleration": 49.15, "rotation_down": 56.91, "downward_expansion": 79.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 111.656, 112.956364, 116.994756, 119.281517 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 111.85, "trend_reference": 121.448472, "distance_from_trend": -0.079033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 87.119647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283867, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.647561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14396, "excess_performance": -0.331414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012407, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314822, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14396, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.11018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117031247, "relative_activity": 1.152704, "balance": 1.11018, "dry_up": 1.07623, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06508, "annualized_volatility": 0.248201, "from_high_reference": -0.172432, "from_low_reference": 0.179222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.448472, "fair_value_reference": 87.119647, "structural_low": 106.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046501, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027716, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091132, "worst_return": 0.028824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000582, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130819, "worst_return": -0.129654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.038774, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096245, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.072772, "worst_return": 0.004775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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85.980889, "relative_strength": -9.845228, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.013248, "energy": 56.830159, "activity_lines": [ 114.058667, 115.910727, 120.006879, 121.357845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.47, "volume": 103873449, "typical_volume": 101173768.25, "trend": 121.559763, "fair_value": 86.351895, "relative_strength": -12.103214, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.843819, "energy": 64.654665, "activity_lines": [ 112.358667, 114.355455, 118.804907, 120.573931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.2, "volume": 118902781, "typical_volume": 102454321.7, "trend": 121.522667, "fair_value": 86.737238, "relative_strength": -11.057749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.137871, "energy": 55.990292, "activity_lines": [ 111.749333, 113.514364, 117.833597, 119.90556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.85, "volume": 117031247, "typical_volume": 101527563.9, "trend": 121.448472, "fair_value": 87.119647, "relative_strength": -14.647561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.560738, "energy": 42.903519, "activity_lines": [ 111.656, 112.956364, 116.994756, 119.281517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }