{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29dbe1af-4407-4adf-8e43-5fdd5d920b3b", "symbol": "EZA", "name": "iShares MSCI South Africa ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.777, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.09, "architecture_energy": 42.249, "architecture_maturity": 42.402, "architecture_confidence": 90.105, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.63, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 5.62, "deceleration": 57.69, "rotation_down": 52.18, "downward_expansion": 81.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 1112.316642, 1113.225808, 1132.046592, 1155.827852 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1153.0, "trend_reference": 1194.107922, "distance_from_trend": -0.034426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 901.326284, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279226, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.95636, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.080682, "excess_performance": -0.026015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11628, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00905, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.21448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248, "relative_activity": 0.054993, "balance": 0.21448, "dry_up": 0.82062, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036635, "annualized_volatility": 0.317249, "from_high_reference": -0.154215, "from_low_reference": 0.158155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1194.107922, "fair_value_reference": 901.326284, 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1207.45059, "fair_value": 892.998564, "relative_strength": -7.303172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.376199, "energy": 53.686676, "activity_lines": [ 1114.185303, 1119.779155, 1146.455948, 1173.840422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1099.98999, "volume": 330, "typical_volume": 12105.55, "trend": 1203.43359, "fair_value": 895.651024, "relative_strength": -6.626409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.717242, "energy": 56.219625, "activity_lines": [ 1106.240641, 1114.53489, 1140.027291, 1166.90748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1076.689941, "volume": 13249, "typical_volume": 11666.2, "trend": 1197.990588, "fair_value": 898.148629, "relative_strength": -9.296013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.407188, "energy": 66.216483, "activity_lines": [ 1095.563297, 1106.333702, 1132.100439, 1158.73047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1153.0, "volume": 248, "typical_volume": 4509.7, "trend": 1194.107922, "fair_value": 901.326284, "relative_strength": -2.95636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.089714, "energy": 42.248608, "activity_lines": [ 1112.316642, 1113.225808, 1132.046592, 1155.827852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }