{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29ddb0e9-b360-4243-84e6-8cf4bf789426", "symbol": "600853", "name": "Longjian Road&Bridge Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.461, "architecture_energy": 48.909, "architecture_maturity": 97.251, "architecture_confidence": 65.438, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.62, "rotation_up": 26.65, "upward_expansion": 20.0, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 45.76, "downward_expansion": 70.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.162159, 3.161172, 3.372919, 3.554971 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 3.812495, "distance_from_trend": -0.160655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.815541, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.947734, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264368, "excess_performance": -0.221164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160655, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0869, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10951, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49130388, "relative_activity": 0.965099, "balance": 0.553619, "dry_up": 0.985708, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07067, "annualized_volatility": 0.307146, "from_high_reference": -0.363817, "from_low_reference": 0.087244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.812495, "fair_value_reference": 3.815541, "structural_low": 2.943222, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.004971, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.167272, "worst_return": -0.186732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.086718, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.042669, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.593333, "worst_return": -0.219351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.205952, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.051573, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.512987, "worst_return": -0.190835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103797, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084815, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-67.693421, "energy": 81.802226, "activity_lines": [ 3.123649, 3.249619, 3.513418, 3.696315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.06, "volume": 56975191, "typical_volume": 58871006.85, "trend": 3.886162, "fair_value": 3.827966, "relative_strength": -20.659844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.651663, "energy": 66.992308, "activity_lines": [ 3.101325, 3.186622, 3.452109, 3.640541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.21, "volume": 42424877, "typical_volume": 54512453.25, "trend": 3.850162, "fair_value": 3.822162, "relative_strength": -16.797528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.09907, "energy": 60.273463, "activity_lines": [ 3.139667, 3.170351, 3.410276, 3.596917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 49130388, "typical_volume": 50907107.5, "trend": 3.812495, "fair_value": 3.815541, "relative_strength": -18.947734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.461089, "energy": 48.908638, "activity_lines": [ 3.162159, 3.161172, 3.372919, 3.554971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }