{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29e6d4d7-4218-438f-b25f-3991795dbbf1", "symbol": "VWCG", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF EUR Accumulation", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.398, "architecture_energy": 75.101, "architecture_maturity": 38.972, "architecture_confidence": 82.477, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 66.55, "upward_expansion": 87.55, "deceleration": 53.29, "rotation_down": 21.28, "downward_expansion": 14.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.507334, 60.074546, 58.96981, 58.059119 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 61.490002, "trend_reference": 57.113667, "distance_from_trend": 0.076625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.878878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284282, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.143414, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094518, "excess_performance": -0.022145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076625, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001434, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094518, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.312222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18922, "relative_activity": 0.974926, "balance": 2.312222, "dry_up": 3.047147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017489, "annualized_volatility": 0.145063, "from_high_reference": -0.002919, "from_low_reference": 0.249289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.113667, "fair_value_reference": 47.878878, "structural_low": 51.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007825, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.002788, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.047927, "worst_return": -0.035362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031666, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011508, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.058504, "worst_return": -0.018331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054265, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035371, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.096296, "worst_return": -0.034043, "sufficient": false }, { 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47.599135, "relative_strength": -0.429599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.109633, "energy": 76.082473, "activity_lines": [ 59.824001, 59.419092, 58.26881, 57.527635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.369999, "volume": 26837, "typical_volume": 19520.25, "trend": 56.913, "fair_value": 47.735641, "relative_strength": -0.581414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.629227, "energy": 62.72232, "activity_lines": [ 60.024667, 59.668182, 58.580191, 57.763828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.490002, "volume": 18922, "typical_volume": 19408.65, "trend": 57.113667, "fair_value": 47.878878, "relative_strength": 0.143414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.3977, "energy": 75.101317, "activity_lines": [ 60.507334, 60.074546, 58.96981, 58.059119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }