{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29e77cdd-fd03-4cd6-bec2-953e5a3fb2c1", "symbol": "UU", "name": "United Utilities Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.689, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.562, "architecture_energy": 64.933, "architecture_maturity": 8.349, "architecture_confidence": 72.09, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.7, "rotation_up": 76.62, "upward_expansion": 90.43, "deceleration": 39.95, "rotation_down": 9.55, "downward_expansion": 12.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 1394.0, 1364.524687, 1349.426156, 1344.438936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1436.0, "trend_reference": 1330.408708, "distance_from_trend": 0.079368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1119.309358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282934, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.735742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125392, "excess_performance": 0.074157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035398, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282934, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125392, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8923745, "relative_activity": 1.029254, "balance": 0.759718, "dry_up": 0.931018, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047365, "annualized_volatility": 0.275403, "from_high_reference": -0.040489, "from_low_reference": 0.339751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1330.408708, "fair_value_reference": 1119.309358, "structural_low": 1224.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.005971, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.003638, "regime_survival": 0.576923, "best_return": 0.112653, "worst_return": -0.082007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.016161, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.044296, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.128006, "worst_return": -0.150202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.014737, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029911, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.14368, "worst_return": -0.098463, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 8811911.25, "trend": 1323.942041, "fair_value": 1116.236092, "relative_strength": 1.28428, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.427462, "energy": 45.806374, "activity_lines": [ 1369.933333, 1345.208203, 1340.029781, 1337.20939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1436.0, "volume": 8923745, "typical_volume": 8670107.85, "trend": 1330.408708, "fair_value": 1119.309358, "relative_strength": 4.735742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.562305, "energy": 64.933263, "activity_lines": [ 1394.0, 1364.524687, 1349.426156, 1344.438936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }