{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29f26961-0b16-47b6-b46a-7c8f976f37c8", "symbol": "HSEM", "name": "HSBC Emerging Market Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.541, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.651, "architecture_energy": 34.385, "architecture_maturity": 49.876, "architecture_confidence": 78.5, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.44, "rotation_up": 38.7, "upward_expansion": 66.5, "deceleration": 91.19, "rotation_down": 28.26, "downward_expansion": 13.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.390933, 19.388146, 19.253457, 18.94994 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.684, "trend_reference": 18.589, "distance_from_trend": 0.058906, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.880744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.670338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097825, "excess_performance": -0.073067, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097825, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57560, "relative_activity": 1.990655, "balance": 1.09279, "dry_up": 1.745766, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027168, "annualized_volatility": 0.164981, "from_high_reference": -0.002938, "from_low_reference": 0.289232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.589, "fair_value_reference": 14.880744, "structural_low": 16.658001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011331, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.000996, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.111873, "worst_return": -0.118088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031809, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161187, "worst_return": -0.016878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117742, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.014895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154104, "worst_return": -0.021584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001741, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091302, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 19.620001, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 29057.15, "trend": 18.1918, "fair_value": 14.647526, "relative_strength": -3.462945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.725476, "energy": 54.817959, "activity_lines": [ 19.4036, 19.323345, 18.923438, 18.622004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.677999, "volume": 28585, "typical_volume": 30333.4, "trend": 18.286267, "fair_value": 14.696333, "relative_strength": -2.814802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.491809, "energy": 55.967857, "activity_lines": [ 19.509066, 19.405854, 19.030429, 18.717888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.004, "volume": 55743, "typical_volume": 32725.8, "trend": 18.360733, "fair_value": 14.741705, "relative_strength": -4.757686, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.367879, "energy": 40.277125, "activity_lines": [ 19.355333, 19.3476, 19.066952, 18.764194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.322001, "volume": 19028, "typical_volume": 32303.5, "trend": 18.447734, "fair_value": 14.785615, "relative_strength": -3.014495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.160357, "energy": 35.688729, "activity_lines": [ 19.33, 19.352145, 19.130352, 18.826211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.198, "volume": 69585, "typical_volume": 26684.55, "trend": 18.516467, "fair_value": 14.830744, "relative_strength": -4.276817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.441918, "energy": 26.847963, "activity_lines": [ 19.2844, 19.327091, 19.173048, 18.874615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.684, "volume": 57560, "typical_volume": 28915.1, "trend": 18.589, "fair_value": 14.880744, "relative_strength": -4.670338, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.650901, "energy": 34.384993, "activity_lines": [ 19.390933, 19.388146, 19.253457, 18.94994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }