{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a03b075-22cb-40fb-a772-d92065109f9b", "symbol": "SECT-B", "name": "Sectra AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.381, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.373, "architecture_energy": 21.459, "architecture_maturity": 62.601, "architecture_confidence": 75.217, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.33, "rotation_up": 21.96, "upward_expansion": 54.54, "deceleration": 90.8, "rotation_down": 32.46, "downward_expansion": 18.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 269.066667, 275.04727, 274.134283, 263.601073 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 267.399994, "trend_reference": 248.509999, "distance_from_trend": 0.076013, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 246.61027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.10461, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.281879, "excess_performance": 0.220385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076013, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060792, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.281879, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 401292, "relative_activity": 0.698953, "balance": 1.183251, "dry_up": 0.788824, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072838, "annualized_volatility": 0.41619, "from_high_reference": -0.246561, "from_low_reference": 0.542989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 248.509999, "fair_value_reference": 246.61027, "structural_low": 173.300003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023092, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.017459, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.139557, "worst_return": -0.208854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021741, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.353194, "worst_return": -0.275521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095122, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.407122, "worst_return": -0.411783, "sufficient": true }, { 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-7.492414, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.690523, "energy": 41.55991, "activity_lines": [ 284.813324, 283.759994, 271.215234, 257.808384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 275.200012, "volume": 345591, "typical_volume": 790755.45, "trend": 246.176666, "fair_value": 244.577373, "relative_strength": -7.973834, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.763774, "energy": 34.87871, "activity_lines": [ 281.159998, 282.978179, 273.005712, 259.72817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 265.799988, "volume": 642974, "typical_volume": 721828.9, "trend": 246.636665, "fair_value": 245.218624, "relative_strength": -11.539943, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.806217, "energy": 28.29093, "activity_lines": [ 276.159996, 280.210904, 273.51333, 260.994191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 267.200012, "volume": 421703, "typical_volume": 621503.65, "trend": 247.556666, "fair_value": 245.909091, "relative_strength": -11.371899, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.991695, "energy": 21.244078, "activity_lines": [ 272.360002, 277.523635, 273.898093, 262.320859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 267.399994, "volume": 401292, "typical_volume": 574133.1, "trend": 248.509999, "fair_value": 246.61027, "relative_strength": -12.10461, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.37322, "energy": 21.458729, "activity_lines": [ 269.066667, 275.04727, 274.134283, 263.601073 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }