{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2a05b882-e4d4-4890-a72c-f676744826e7",
    "symbol": "AAL",
    "name": "Anglo American plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 49.382,
    "architecture_energy": 21.594,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.249,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.416,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.79,
        "rotation_up": 39.73,
        "upward_expansion": 62.12,
        "deceleration": 82.48,
        "rotation_down": 26.74,
        "downward_expansion": 16.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3775.066667,
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        3766.55,
        3686.48176
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 4022.0,
    "trend_reference": 3589.850439,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.120381,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2523.364546,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.593904,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 15.587868,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.17093,
    "excess_performance": 0.119694,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.120381,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086632,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.593904,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011881,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.155879,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.142076,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.17093,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.47574,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 32453536,
      "relative_activity": 1.57645,
      "balance": 1.47574,
      "dry_up": 1.279766,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.074167,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.393636,
      "from_high_reference": -0.024733,
      "from_low_reference": 0.901769
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 2523.364546,
      "structural_low": 2757.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.003051,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01122,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.294384,
        "worst_return": -0.267143,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.15417,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.145528,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.356819,
        "worst_return": -0.18513,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.153578,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.14639,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.285997,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "positive_rate": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.298069,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": -0.017999,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "typical_volume": 20586472.6,
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        "fair_value": 2523.364546,
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        "stage": 2,
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}