{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a085e2c-1440-4c6c-8aa5-676a1617881a", "symbol": "TNTELE", "name": "Tamilnadu Telecommunications Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.263, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.365, "architecture_energy": 11.27, "architecture_maturity": 36.314, "architecture_confidence": 65.427, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.06, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 7.09, "deceleration": 55.72, "rotation_down": 39.91, "downward_expansion": 46.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.08, 9.103091, 9.238095, 9.24071 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.03, "trend_reference": 9.212333, "distance_from_trend": -0.019792, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.663654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.200747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021493, "excess_performance": 0.065202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.301062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129068, "relative_activity": 0.831394, "balance": 0.301062, "dry_up": 0.942238, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089105, "annualized_volatility": 0.30351, "from_high_reference": -0.495531, "from_low_reference": 0.15621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.212333, "fair_value_reference": 10.663654, "structural_low": 7.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.014417, "positive_rate": 0.227273, "directional_follow_through": 0.227273, "median_excess_return": -0.027959, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 1.615698, "worst_return": -0.206815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.070258, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.075795, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.584258, "worst_return": -0.309826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.136925, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.128627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194753, "worst_return": -0.225778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.054001, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153778, "worst_return": -0.26178, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033281, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112008, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191422, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005693, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147309, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.2, "volume": 39296, "typical_volume": 40669.7, "trend": 6.375, "fair_value": 7.012821, "relative_strength": -17.208621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.677644, 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-12.083311, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.615647, "energy": 10.936238, "activity_lines": [ 9.11, 9.149091, 9.293571, 9.26372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.08, "volume": 165323, "typical_volume": 152752.5, "trend": 9.216667, "fair_value": 10.644872, "relative_strength": -13.358309, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.516911, "energy": 9.592233, "activity_lines": [ 9.106667, 9.131455, 9.269571, 9.252753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.03, "volume": 129068, "typical_volume": 155242.95, "trend": 9.212333, "fair_value": 10.663654, "relative_strength": -13.200747, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.365406, "energy": 11.270219, "activity_lines": [ 9.08, 9.103091, 9.238095, 9.24071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }