{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a0cec4d-a704-4ae1-bd50-3e444a6dc20d", "symbol": "APLM", "name": "Apollomics Inc. Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.721, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.06, "architecture_energy": 4.482, "architecture_maturity": 25.397, "architecture_confidence": 37.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.79, "rotation_up": 24.6, "upward_expansion": 29.42, "deceleration": 69.23, "rotation_down": 32.04, "downward_expansion": 20.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.606667, 17.9878, 16.916455, 16.907825 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.9, "trend_reference": 17.277843, "distance_from_trend": -0.021869, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.520615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.644365, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.799975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122078, "excess_performance": -0.309532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021869, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.644365, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122078, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 440307, "relative_activity": 5.003622, "balance": 0.253276, "dry_up": 2.73734, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.219399, "annualized_volatility": 0.586395, "from_high_reference": -0.598765, "from_low_reference": 3.618748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.277843, "fair_value_reference": 47.520615, "structural_low": 12.5802, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.986582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.331301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017981, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.438235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020006, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 517.0, "volume": 25138, "typical_volume": 532045.8, "trend": 764.113667, "fair_value": 927.397033, "relative_strength": -50.479266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.822774, "energy": 37.369334, "activity_lines": [ 535.6, 541.672727, 525.371429, 628.513591 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 472.0, "volume": 38262, "typical_volume": 499708.25, "trend": 745.113667, "fair_value": 922.447065, "relative_strength": -54.924768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.994787, "energy": 44.550145, 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16.373109 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 20.8, "volume": 126836, "typical_volume": 46594.7, "trend": 17.308843, "fair_value": 67.902763, "relative_strength": 19.001612, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.998861, "energy": 17.01073, "activity_lines": [ 17.270467, 16.096715, 15.924582, 16.61071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.56, "volume": 83349, "typical_volume": 46980.75, "trend": 17.41851, "fair_value": 64.637122, "relative_strength": 9.558401, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.001088, "energy": 30.259119, "activity_lines": [ 18.406933, 16.838709, 16.20339, 16.755946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.95, "volume": 31240, "typical_volume": 47042.1, "trend": 17.515177, "fair_value": 61.175263, "relative_strength": 2.968697, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.870513, "energy": 33.296551, "activity_lines": [ 18.9794, 17.355655, 16.425199, 16.854752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.52, "volume": 428146, "typical_volume": 65842.6, "trend": 17.57501, "fair_value": 57.736288, "relative_strength": 3.778217, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.384257, "energy": 32.437033, "activity_lines": [ 19.078533, 17.744782, 16.610721, 16.919579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.21, "volume": 59141, "typical_volume": 66111.25, "trend": 17.515343, "fair_value": 54.173532, "relative_strength": 2.500395, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.182086, "energy": 23.024613, "activity_lines": [ 18.793333, 18.021727, 16.774767, 16.960546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.245, "volume": 35924, "typical_volume": 67008.1, "trend": 17.446843, "fair_value": 50.809718, "relative_strength": -4.482657, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.185186, "energy": 10.481633, "activity_lines": [ 18.139, 18.064855, 16.855718, 16.943105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.9, "volume": 440307, "typical_volume": 87997.65, "trend": 17.277843, "fair_value": 47.520615, "relative_strength": -11.799975, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.060061, "energy": 4.482398, "activity_lines": [ 17.606667, 17.9878, 16.916455, 16.907825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }