{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a131eb6-fb3d-4a14-817d-284aad979395", "symbol": "MCLEODRUSS", "name": "McLeod Russel India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.936, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.842, "architecture_energy": 28.135, "architecture_maturity": 45.738, "architecture_confidence": 88.64, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.48, "rotation_up": 14.19, "upward_expansion": 43.79, "deceleration": 81.09, "rotation_down": 48.75, "downward_expansion": 37.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.1, 54.935091, 58.183429, 55.116861 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.040001, "trend_reference": 51.076334, "distance_from_trend": -0.039868, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.67, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.745827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.163464, "excess_performance": 0.207173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039868, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.458864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.439663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.163464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.127498, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1193984, "relative_activity": 0.655868, "balance": 2.127498, "dry_up": 0.459385, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127808, "annualized_volatility": 0.629144, "from_high_reference": -0.37457, "from_low_reference": 0.720702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.076334, "fair_value_reference": 36.67, "structural_low": 28.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.042109, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.027416, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.382716, "worst_return": -0.342532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.12435, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.121438, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.862132, "worst_return": -0.176649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.104005, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007794, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.533189, "worst_return": -0.247387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.427886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086811, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"energy": 29.544366, "activity_lines": [ 60.768668, 64.221819, 58.592382, 54.286001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 54.970001, "volume": 1014636, "typical_volume": 2165383.55, "trend": 50.284334, "fair_value": 35.798462, "relative_strength": 15.843771, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.42568, "energy": 31.040778, "activity_lines": [ 58.058667, 62.530183, 58.818906, 54.60185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.639999, "volume": 830338, "typical_volume": 2139878.65, "trend": 50.657001, "fair_value": 36.03718, "relative_strength": 15.720672, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.029038, "energy": 31.000878, "activity_lines": [ 56.634667, 60.94491, 59.047763, 54.947377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.07, "volume": 723912, "typical_volume": 2034524.55, "trend": 50.826334, "fair_value": 36.263269, "relative_strength": 14.382462, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.520199, "energy": 25.613476, "activity_lines": [ 55.252667, 59.146183, 59.060715, 55.167571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.959999, "volume": 596939, "typical_volume": 1924902.75, "trend": 50.959667, "fair_value": 36.478398, "relative_strength": 6.520071, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.45001, "energy": 22.536187, "activity_lines": [ 53.896, 57.119637, 58.796572, 55.24071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.040001, "volume": 1193984, "typical_volume": 1820464.65, "trend": 51.076334, "fair_value": 36.67, "relative_strength": -0.745827, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.84242, "energy": 28.135399, "activity_lines": [ 52.1, 54.935091, 58.183429, 55.116861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }