{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a14ac8e-ab7d-40f4-8382-0c42a36fd914", "symbol": "ALQ", "name": "ALS Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.827, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.441, "architecture_energy": 16.228, "architecture_maturity": 37.432, "architecture_confidence": 58.5, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.59, "rotation_up": 15.22, "upward_expansion": 11.68, "deceleration": 53.46, "rotation_down": 48.96, "downward_expansion": 66.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.078666, 22.273352, 22.371411, 22.331551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.379999, "trend_reference": 22.524607, "distance_from_trend": 0.037976, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.423977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.423528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.193437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029409, "excess_performance": -0.034296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.423528, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008272, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021934, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.598522, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8292564, "relative_activity": 1.253046, "balance": 1.598522, "dry_up": 1.174251, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067214, "annualized_volatility": 0.358776, "from_high_reference": -0.097251, "from_low_reference": 0.322489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.524607, "fair_value_reference": 16.423977, "structural_low": 19.080105, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.028354, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.015051, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.124528, "worst_return": -0.158353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023885, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.013264, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.088282, "worst_return": -0.157348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033469, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.054862, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.087471, 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"mixed", "direction": -1.018292, "energy": 4.368948, "activity_lines": [ 22.808667, 22.89134, 22.457357, 22.505194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.959999, "volume": 4687924, "typical_volume": 6717620.55, "trend": 22.553118, "fair_value": 16.214932, "relative_strength": 1.966256, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.155202, "energy": 8.441404, "activity_lines": [ 22.544, 22.730817, 22.426393, 22.467077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.459999, "volume": 7178799, "typical_volume": 6643953.5, "trend": 22.502461, "fair_value": 16.27705, "relative_strength": -4.949014, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.88269, "energy": 34.083455, "activity_lines": [ 21.818, 22.300084, 22.268735, 22.332037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.610001, "volume": 10925149, "typical_volume": 6674662.5, "trend": 22.495085, "fair_value": 16.344155, "relative_strength": -2.17136, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.215248, "energy": 36.821589, "activity_lines": [ 21.618, 22.105894, 22.236274, 22.274459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.379999, "volume": 8292564, "typical_volume": 6617925.8, "trend": 22.524607, "fair_value": 16.423977, "relative_strength": 2.193437, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.440786, "energy": 16.228225, "activity_lines": [ 22.078666, 22.273352, 22.371411, 22.331551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }