{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a1b2bcb-bc07-41cb-ab7b-949ed1cad77b", "symbol": "600318", "name": "Anhui Xinli Finance Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.036, "architecture_energy": 43.252, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.385, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.63, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 19.16, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 41.61, "downward_expansion": 69.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.326667, 6.266171, 6.566251, 6.976142 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.51, "trend_reference": 7.563477, "distance_from_trend": -0.139285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.917742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.130878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.247399, "excess_performance": -0.204195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.155194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57175510, "relative_activity": 1.109663, "balance": 0.155194, "dry_up": 1.218138, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068682, "annualized_volatility": 0.369843, "from_high_reference": -0.428947, "from_low_reference": 0.124352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.563477, "fair_value_reference": 7.917742, "structural_low": 5.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.00346, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.003732, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.409594, "worst_return": -0.141401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051086, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018391, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.779579, "worst_return": -0.119114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021739, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.109746, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.842342, "worst_return": -0.28473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.161979, "energy": 68.03473, "activity_lines": [ 6.120667, 6.276288, 6.779789, 7.242019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.01, "volume": 69726225, "typical_volume": 63092572.1, "trend": 7.726144, "fair_value": 7.91674, "relative_strength": -27.225032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.542394, "energy": 65.837186, "activity_lines": [ 6.075333, 6.189516, 6.659673, 7.1253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 67120046, "typical_volume": 56021016.4, "trend": 7.64581, "fair_value": 7.917465, "relative_strength": -20.248577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.182542, "energy": 57.154486, "activity_lines": [ 6.224667, 6.226139, 6.609748, 7.04942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.51, "volume": 57175510, "typical_volume": 51525122.4, "trend": 7.563477, "fair_value": 7.917742, "relative_strength": -22.130878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.035943, "energy": 43.251677, "activity_lines": [ 6.326667, 6.266171, 6.566251, 6.976142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }