{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a1ba241-3b20-4892-b9e9-b54db9048ec8", "symbol": "ADSE", "name": "Ads Tec Energy PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.439, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.209, "architecture_energy": 29.003, "architecture_maturity": 55.669, "architecture_confidence": 77.385, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.6, "rotation_up": 49.34, "upward_expansion": 76.98, "deceleration": 53.91, "rotation_down": 17.26, "downward_expansion": 3.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.178, 12.052909, 11.875764, 11.72153 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.83, "trend_reference": 11.58817, "distance_from_trend": 0.020869, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.333494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.999653, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.163225, "excess_performance": -0.024228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020869, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01379, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096223, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.163225, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.253762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75502, "relative_activity": 1.382957, "balance": 3.253762, "dry_up": 1.911398, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113656, "annualized_volatility": 0.37304, "from_high_reference": -0.123704, "from_low_reference": 0.499366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.58817, "fair_value_reference": 11.333494, "structural_low": 9.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014444, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.011177, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.356725, "worst_return": -0.103236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011017, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080873, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.578947, "worst_return": -0.059011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.356592, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.257134, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.804094, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.282164, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.036062, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.282164, "worst_return": 1.282164, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.35348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.199333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147662, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.110701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.247304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.163225, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.99, "volume": 212947, "typical_volume": 207183.35, "trend": 4.319447, "fair_value": 5.898192, "relative_strength": 43.045735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.760769, "energy": 24.671336, "activity_lines": [ 11.975333, 11.822182, 11.692122, 11.595541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.01, "volume": 63425, "typical_volume": 43772.9, "trend": 11.580503, "fair_value": 11.262276, "relative_strength": -4.175466, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.414242, "energy": 38.071185, "activity_lines": [ 12.024, 11.869455, 11.737193, 11.622175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.88, "volume": 205328, "typical_volume": 52291.15, "trend": 11.589503, "fair_value": 11.304456, "relative_strength": 2.569051, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.398922, "energy": 45.359676, "activity_lines": [ 12.322, 12.065636, 11.862836, 11.706014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.83, "volume": 75502, "typical_volume": 54594.6, "trend": 11.58817, "fair_value": 11.333494, "relative_strength": -9.999653, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.20856, "energy": 29.002508, "activity_lines": [ 12.178, 12.052909, 11.875764, 11.72153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }