{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a2820d1-3a97-4288-a913-be343a1a6749", "symbol": "NRES", "name": "XTRACKERS RREEF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.649, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.796, "architecture_energy": 23.189, "architecture_maturity": 58.211, "architecture_confidence": 50.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.53, "rotation_up": 40.9, "upward_expansion": 21.41, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 19.82, "downward_expansion": 57.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.819707, 32.293719, 32.651812, 32.938874 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.6175, "trend_reference": 33.116119, "distance_from_trend": 0.01514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.114644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.963506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018512, "excess_performance": -0.168941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01514, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.666354, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276, "relative_activity": 0.10249, "balance": 0.666354, "dry_up": 1.082549, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025682, "annualized_volatility": 0.166607, "from_high_reference": -0.045453, "from_low_reference": 0.341888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.116119, "fair_value_reference": 27.114644, "structural_low": 29.777701, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.294557, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058878, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-01", "close": 23.665674, "volume": 91906, 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32.881618, "fair_value": 27.017159, "relative_strength": -1.258804, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.766151, "energy": 38.139679, "activity_lines": [ 31.79378, 31.901438, 32.614417, 32.897898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.895, "volume": 348, "typical_volume": 3227.25, "trend": 32.995761, "fair_value": 27.063441, "relative_strength": -1.145167, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.729836, "energy": 24.691282, "activity_lines": [ 32.2552, 32.025909, 32.597398, 32.898761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.6175, "volume": 276, "typical_volume": 2692.95, "trend": 33.116119, "fair_value": 27.114644, "relative_strength": -3.963506, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.795666, "energy": 23.189157, "activity_lines": [ 32.819707, 32.293719, 32.651812, 32.938874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }