{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a29280c-fca4-4bc9-b7ae-ded9e141a467", "symbol": "ANNE-B", "name": "Annehem Fastigheter AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.082, "architecture_energy": 58.662, "architecture_maturity": 13.404, "architecture_confidence": 94.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.83, "rotation_up": 15.85, "upward_expansion": 12.11, "deceleration": 40.1, "rotation_down": 64.06, "downward_expansion": 87.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.086667, 16.290909, 16.763476, 17.012796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 17.159, "distance_from_trend": -0.067545, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.094991, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.24374, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019608, "excess_performance": -0.081102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012147, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143127, "relative_activity": 0.831888, "balance": 0.708188, "dry_up": 0.385826, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054327, "annualized_volatility": 0.209351, "from_high_reference": -0.179487, "from_low_reference": 0.015873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.159, "fair_value_reference": 17.094991, "structural_low": 15.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.00639, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.028614, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.278373, "worst_return": -0.131466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034753, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088742, "worst_return": -0.140487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.098537, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.148677, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.096059, "worst_return": -0.152893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042841, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 38.776771, "activity_lines": [ 16.763333, 17.026364, 17.381143, 17.390495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 46412, "typical_volume": 448988.05, "trend": 17.339333, "fair_value": 17.160056, "relative_strength": -15.475195, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.464594, "energy": 57.476155, "activity_lines": [ 16.563334, 16.833637, 17.250667, 17.314796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.35, "volume": 24185, "typical_volume": 430903.45, "trend": 17.311, "fair_value": 17.147299, "relative_strength": -13.478644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.62665, "energy": 52.310998, "activity_lines": [ 16.453334, 16.696364, 17.139429, 17.250968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.0, "volume": 20455, "typical_volume": 293395.1, "trend": 17.268333, "fair_value": 17.126915, "relative_strength": -16.294188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.061625, "energy": 55.365695, "activity_lines": [ 16.293334, 16.525455, 17.000714, 17.166387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.1, "volume": 77760, "typical_volume": 273687.5, "trend": 17.212333, "fair_value": 17.11153, "relative_strength": -16.580754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.184773, "energy": 59.412615, "activity_lines": [ 16.196667, 16.400909, 16.882476, 17.091011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 143127, "typical_volume": 172050.85, "trend": 17.159, "fair_value": 17.094991, "relative_strength": -18.24374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.082226, "energy": 58.661668, "activity_lines": [ 16.086667, 16.290909, 16.763476, 17.012796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }