{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a2a89cf-7681-4801-9337-9fe18670efd6", "symbol": "XSMI", "name": "Xtrackers Switzerland UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.667, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.952, "architecture_energy": 58.858, "architecture_maturity": 50.401, "architecture_confidence": 71.46, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 56.54, "upward_expansion": 83.02, "deceleration": 66.44, "rotation_down": 25.42, "downward_expansion": 9.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 162.190664, 161.519998, 158.17238, 155.706537 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 163.539993, "trend_reference": 153.161333, "distance_from_trend": 0.067763, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.940921, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239494, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.435399, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081757, "excess_performance": -0.089135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067763, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072973, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.467623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94201, "relative_activity": 3.819357, "balance": 3.467623, "dry_up": 1.454574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022333, "annualized_volatility": 0.155068, "from_high_reference": -0.007405, "from_low_reference": 0.27044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 153.161333, "fair_value_reference": 131.940921, "structural_low": 136.559998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.000448, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.008857, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.070135, "worst_return": -0.106958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.004045, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.04224, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.084191, "worst_return": -0.087822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010814, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.047802, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.102718, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 21703.6, "trend": 152.182667, "fair_value": 131.344608, "relative_strength": -2.412842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.918715, "energy": 82.4032, "activity_lines": [ 162.121331, 160.236725, 156.433427, 154.419871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 161.240005, "volume": 14357, "typical_volume": 20959.6, "trend": 152.654, "fair_value": 131.635271, "relative_strength": -3.02559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.577853, "energy": 57.377304, "activity_lines": [ 161.770666, 160.725817, 157.227999, 155.004215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.539993, "volume": 94201, "typical_volume": 24664.1, "trend": 153.161333, "fair_value": 131.940921, "relative_strength": -4.435399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.952448, "energy": 58.85769, "activity_lines": [ 162.190664, 161.519998, 158.17238, 155.706537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }