{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a38b847-864d-49cf-95cc-ee0476c70731", "symbol": "300103", "name": "Dagang Holding Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.635, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.506, "architecture_energy": 45.754, "architecture_maturity": 8.882, "architecture_confidence": 77.189, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.05, "rotation_up": 14.13, "upward_expansion": 10.98, "deceleration": 38.33, "rotation_down": 63.6, "downward_expansion": 84.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.124667, 7.330545, 7.717429, 7.754968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 7.818333, "distance_from_trend": 0.036026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.416795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.708596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047865, "excess_performance": 0.040466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036026, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027086, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08086, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047865, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694286, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40565152, "relative_activity": 1.045191, "balance": 0.694286, "dry_up": 0.888444, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131814, "annualized_volatility": 0.531539, "from_high_reference": -0.188377, "from_low_reference": 0.449016 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.818333, "fair_value_reference": 6.416795, "structural_low": 5.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.02407, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.28, "median_excess_return": 0.04339, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.406154, "worst_return": -0.269388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005365, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.099703, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.332308, "worst_return": -0.142506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032081, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.390769, "worst_return": -0.321981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055629, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.588004, "energy": 67.569261, "activity_lines": [ 6.938, 7.466, 7.797095, 7.818473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.59, "volume": 24220736, "typical_volume": 38528853.45, "trend": 7.816, "fair_value": 6.405064, "relative_strength": -12.103194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.189141, "energy": 69.840846, "activity_lines": [ 6.741333, 7.238182, 7.682571, 7.736645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 40565152, "typical_volume": 38811236.05, "trend": 7.818333, "fair_value": 6.416795, "relative_strength": 2.708596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.505998, "energy": 45.754463, "activity_lines": [ 7.124667, 7.330545, 7.717429, 7.754968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }