{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a43988a-bc06-4577-ab1d-48571af9d421", "symbol": "CROS", "name": "Crosswood SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.119, "architecture_energy": 63.817, "architecture_maturity": 20.309, "architecture_confidence": 91.965, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.94, "rotation_up": 13.57, "upward_expansion": 13.61, "deceleration": 38.86, "rotation_down": 68.19, "downward_expansion": 89.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.07, 9.249091, 9.607143, 9.79129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.7, "trend_reference": 9.988333, "distance_from_trend": -0.028867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.594297, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.053819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067308, "excess_performance": -0.120619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.15942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5, "relative_activity": 0.8, "balance": 0.15942, "dry_up": 1.4, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065821, "annualized_volatility": 0.638941, "from_high_reference": -0.126126, "from_low_reference": 0.108571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.988333, "fair_value_reference": 9.594297, "structural_low": 8.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.068063, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.056209, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.345442, "worst_return": -0.263473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.141361, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.119927, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.867388, "worst_return": -0.17757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.273504, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.338004, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.73207, "worst_return": -0.178947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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10.37881, 10.40914 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 9.4, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 13.9, "trend": 10.463333, "fair_value": 9.56097, "relative_strength": -12.36631, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.80625, "energy": 32.135316, "activity_lines": [ 10.153333, 10.369091, 10.293571, 10.337312 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 10.5, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 8.95, "trend": 10.45, "fair_value": 9.582111, "relative_strength": -2.764021, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.837986, "energy": 19.313066, "activity_lines": [ 10.213333, 10.369091, 10.320238, 10.339677 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 8.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.7, "trend": 10.38, "fair_value": 9.585714, "relative_strength": -18.48126, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.151835, "energy": 64.897513, "activity_lines": [ 9.713333, 10.063636, 10.178333, 10.233226 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 10.5, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 6.65, "trend": 10.363333, "fair_value": 9.600215, "relative_strength": -4.070214, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.474147, "energy": 40.559692, "activity_lines": [ 9.9, 10.101818, 10.207381, 10.240968 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.65, "trend": 10.326667, "fair_value": 9.61151, "relative_strength": -9.086527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.796072, "energy": 35.837601, "activity_lines": [ 9.92, 10.052727, 10.188333, 10.217527 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.65, "trend": 10.286667, "fair_value": 9.622165, "relative_strength": -9.325403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.301653, "energy": 39.796121, "activity_lines": [ 9.94, 9.998182, 10.161667, 10.19 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.65, "trend": 10.246667, "fair_value": 9.632819, "relative_strength": -10.338236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.431121, "energy": 19.133809, "activity_lines": [ 9.926667, 9.956364, 10.137381, 10.165054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.8, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 8.7, "trend": 10.176667, "fair_value": 9.638636, "relative_strength": -18.29201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.14131, "energy": 52.501946, "activity_lines": [ 9.586667, 9.727273, 10.010714, 10.07172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.75, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 7.55, "trend": 10.111667, "fair_value": 9.636859, "relative_strength": -18.351938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.067143, "energy": 77.17083, "activity_lines": [ 9.23, 9.521818, 9.880476, 9.979677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.05, "trend": 10.04, "fair_value": 9.624647, "relative_strength": -18.270625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.658736, "energy": 81.82486, "activity_lines": [ 8.99, 9.348182, 9.752857, 9.891828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.75, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 6.4, "trend": 9.968333, "fair_value": 9.613068, "relative_strength": -19.099631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.390728, "energy": 82.849235, "activity_lines": [ 8.833333, 9.206364, 9.634048, 9.808602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.7, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 6.25, "trend": 9.988333, "fair_value": 9.594297, "relative_strength": -12.053819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.118743, "energy": 63.816785, "activity_lines": [ 9.07, 9.249091, 9.607143, 9.79129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }