{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a482587-170a-48d8-872d-84927c180558", "symbol": "ASSA-B", "name": "ASSA ABLOY AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.477, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.905, "architecture_energy": 34.522, "architecture_maturity": 7.559, "architecture_confidence": 77.616, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.72, "rotation_up": 67.42, "upward_expansion": 42.98, "deceleration": 29.93, "rotation_down": 17.19, "downward_expansion": 17.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 354.733333, 348.685452, 345.885657, 347.416764 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 366.5, "trend_reference": 352.01753, "distance_from_trend": 0.041141, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 309.73973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183251, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.352224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.062907, "excess_performance": -0.124401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041141, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.179145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6500536, "relative_activity": 0.903787, "balance": 1.179145, "dry_up": 1.17027, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036142, "annualized_volatility": 0.250097, "from_high_reference": -0.068337, "from_low_reference": 0.177744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 352.01753, "fair_value_reference": 309.73973, "structural_low": 311.415634, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.011954, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.009863, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.097448, "worst_return": -0.090191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016413, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.028481, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.130933, "worst_return": -0.156929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109171, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.06155, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.208279, "worst_return": 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"relative_strength": -8.368057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.338921, "energy": 15.0017, "activity_lines": [ 344.413328, 341.332723, 342.784365, 346.387826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 353.100006, "volume": 7486456, "typical_volume": 7480299.65, "trend": 351.849801, "fair_value": 308.882552, "relative_strength": -8.158022, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.385224, "energy": 10.106915, "activity_lines": [ 347.746665, 343.939997, 343.728437, 346.47159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 366.5, "volume": 6500536, "typical_volume": 7192552.4, "trend": 352.01753, "fair_value": 309.73973, "relative_strength": -6.352224, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.904774, "energy": 34.521873, "activity_lines": [ 354.733333, 348.685452, 345.885657, 347.416764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }