{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a4cf59d-0003-4019-a38d-b5fb49dcd8a4", "symbol": "600773", "name": "Tibet Urban Development and Investment Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.43, "architecture_energy": 85.821, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.81, "rotation_up": 12.4, "upward_expansion": 21.76, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 75.28, "downward_expansion": 97.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.731333, 11.633273, 14.650286, 15.707484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.24, "trend_reference": 16.213, "distance_from_trend": -0.306729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.143071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.398768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.16679, "excess_performance": -0.123586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000741, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.181687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.989912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16679, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.233797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105372575, "relative_activity": 0.725567, "balance": 0.233797, "dry_up": 0.892891, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177252, "annualized_volatility": 0.797937, "from_high_reference": -0.610803, "from_low_reference": 0.208602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.213, "fair_value_reference": 12.143071, "structural_low": 9.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.030019, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.026113, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.30722, "worst_return": -0.188827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.112416, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.076774, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.62792, "worst_return": -0.300627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042903, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052264, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.138523, "worst_return": -0.247748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-54.81483, "energy": 77.725284, "activity_lines": [ 12.074, 13.608727, 16.650048, 16.829591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.01, "volume": 146611428, "typical_volume": 156545115.4, "trend": 16.328667, "fair_value": 12.174305, "relative_strength": -27.009779, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.093458, "energy": 79.969893, "activity_lines": [ 11.184, 12.663818, 15.902048, 16.417161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.34, "volume": 120304598, "typical_volume": 150925900.1, "trend": 16.251333, "fair_value": 12.160346, "relative_strength": -24.774864, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.320627, "energy": 88.221105, "activity_lines": [ 10.722667, 11.978909, 15.214476, 16.030796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.24, "volume": 105372575, "typical_volume": 145227983.45, "trend": 16.213, "fair_value": 12.143071, "relative_strength": -20.398768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.429881, "energy": 85.821013, "activity_lines": [ 10.731333, 11.633273, 14.650286, 15.707484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }