{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a4e67a3-14a3-46b5-a3d2-649009ab22e0", "symbol": "TKO", "name": "Taseko Mines Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.691, "architecture_energy": 27.753, "architecture_maturity": 19.481, "architecture_confidence": 59.332, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.7, "rotation_up": 49.72, "upward_expansion": 50.38, "deceleration": 30.64, "rotation_down": 29.35, "downward_expansion": 15.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.334, 10.101455, 9.95619, 9.903742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.64, "trend_reference": 9.961333, "distance_from_trend": 0.168518, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.684679, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.484695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.814308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085821, "excess_performance": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168518, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103504, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.484695, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.258143, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007639, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6989200, "relative_activity": 1.694575, "balance": 1.007639, "dry_up": 1.579669, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117962, "annualized_volatility": 0.689976, "from_high_reference": -0.06656, "from_low_reference": 1.778043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.961333, "fair_value_reference": 4.684679, "structural_low": 7.53, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.017037, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005315, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.485816, "worst_return": -0.212871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.044163, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.047736, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.617857, "worst_return": -0.375912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.141667, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.076851, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.215827, "worst_return": -0.427007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141141, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113269, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111511, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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44.354871, "energy": 25.241984, "activity_lines": [ 9.986, 9.879273, 9.792571, 9.749785 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.14, "volume": 1322100, "typical_volume": 5341810.0, "trend": 9.472667, "fair_value": 4.367949, "relative_strength": 8.666642, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.255456, "energy": 5.78148, "activity_lines": [ 9.753333, 9.741455, 9.718333, 9.732194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.9, "volume": 149300, "typical_volume": 5102260.0, "trend": 9.558667, "fair_value": 4.419103, "relative_strength": 15.715728, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.477572, "energy": 15.261866, "activity_lines": [ 9.771333, 9.767091, 9.724, 9.759763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.31, "volume": 5535200, "typical_volume": 5051465.0, "trend": 9.652667, "fair_value": 4.472692, "relative_strength": 19.267485, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.323563, "energy": 18.29516, "activity_lines": [ 9.949333, 9.866182, 9.775429, 9.808237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.51, "volume": 6779100, "typical_volume": 4862630.0, "trend": 9.718, "fair_value": 4.521667, "relative_strength": 9.210688, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.205719, "energy": 7.403262, "activity_lines": [ 9.791333, 9.809273, 9.753571, 9.799032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.88, "volume": 6592000, "typical_volume": 4837480.0, "trend": 9.789667, "fair_value": 4.572821, "relative_strength": 12.175267, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.013712, "energy": 4.551534, "activity_lines": [ 9.820667, 9.832727, 9.779524, 9.809484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.46, "volume": 5700800, "typical_volume": 4805085.0, "trend": 9.849333, "fair_value": 4.621731, "relative_strength": 6.923977, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.610264, "energy": 12.363022, "activity_lines": [ 9.724667, 9.772182, 9.765048, 9.788215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.64, "volume": 6989200, "typical_volume": 4124455.0, "trend": 9.961333, "fair_value": 4.684679, "relative_strength": 25.814308, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.690995, "energy": 27.752547, "activity_lines": [ 10.334, 10.101455, 9.95619, 9.903742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }