{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a58c3a9-d7e6-4b89-a1de-3112fac3ec19", "symbol": "002523", "name": "Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.031, "architecture_energy": 35.902, "architecture_maturity": 92.644, "architecture_confidence": 87.244, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.47, "rotation_up": 27.57, "upward_expansion": 18.35, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 34.22, "downward_expansion": 66.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.226, 3.189452, 3.344979, 3.550019 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.28, "trend_reference": 3.838711, "distance_from_trend": -0.145546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.306625, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.401951, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.274336, "excess_performance": -0.281736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078469, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008052, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19421, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109739351, "relative_activity": 1.262706, "balance": 0.747548, "dry_up": 1.706216, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076419, "annualized_volatility": 0.285531, "from_high_reference": -0.346614, "from_low_reference": 0.146853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.838711, "fair_value_reference": 3.306625, "structural_low": 2.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.02289, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.025778, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.44964, "worst_return": -0.12, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.160712, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.101461, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.335968, "worst_return": -0.001703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102932, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.145367, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.572093, "worst_return": -0.036487, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-72.786879, "energy": 88.823854, "activity_lines": [ 3.158658, 3.317436, 3.586058, 3.792033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.99, "volume": 81563593, "typical_volume": 87847072.85, "trend": 3.962044, "fair_value": 3.297536, "relative_strength": -32.285928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.191116, "energy": 89.494721, "activity_lines": [ 3.079732, 3.23123, 3.505766, 3.726675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.24, "volume": 214909941, "typical_volume": 92012506.3, "trend": 3.935044, "fair_value": 3.299856, "relative_strength": -18.85964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.805846, "energy": 65.238721, "activity_lines": [ 3.11793, 3.206196, 3.456331, 3.680092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.16, "volume": 162750660, "typical_volume": 89811209.45, "trend": 3.908711, "fair_value": 3.301473, "relative_strength": -20.644823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.878913, "energy": 59.871794, "activity_lines": [ 3.132013, 3.178151, 3.406039, 3.630089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.26, "volume": 105735691, "typical_volume": 87645657.4, "trend": 3.872377, "fair_value": 3.303985, "relative_strength": -16.285857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.020594, "energy": 47.773862, "activity_lines": [ 3.184667, 3.178566, 3.371937, 3.588237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.28, "volume": 109739351, "typical_volume": 86908052.95, "trend": 3.838711, "fair_value": 3.306625, "relative_strength": -19.401951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.03085, "energy": 35.901508, "activity_lines": [ 3.226, 3.189452, 3.344979, 3.550019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }