{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a5ec89e-fb03-427d-8d6e-1bc68f61f696", "symbol": "UD03", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI EMU Prime Value Screened UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.322, "architecture_energy": 73.292, "architecture_maturity": 69.706, "architecture_confidence": 87.637, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 61.61, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 65.9, "rotation_down": 28.27, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2295.833333, 2279.36818, 2227.423329, 2171.606161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2328.0, "trend_reference": 2102.07923, "distance_from_trend": 0.107475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1778.501036, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308967, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.994669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.168642, "excess_performance": 0.117407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095022, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069947, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034803, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.168642, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 26.441995, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3192, "relative_activity": 1.790291, "balance": 26.441995, "dry_up": 1.871617, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015662, "annualized_volatility": 0.148011, "from_high_reference": -0.002464, "from_low_reference": 0.302625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2102.07923, "fair_value_reference": 1778.501036, "structural_low": 1858.199951, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002508, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000464, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.106192, "worst_return": -0.08448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.021809, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02293, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.096962, "worst_return": -0.079019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008764, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.116441, "worst_return": -0.053029, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 80.684582, "energy": 71.016576, "activity_lines": [ 2278.666667, 2264.654542, 2210.010471, 2156.221071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2328.0, "volume": 3192, "typical_volume": 1782.95, "trend": 2102.07923, "fair_value": 1778.501036, "relative_strength": 6.994669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.32158, "energy": 73.292077, "activity_lines": [ 2295.833333, 2279.36818, 2227.423329, 2171.606161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }