{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a5fa687-39fc-4dcd-992f-634577599f88", "symbol": "MPT", "name": "Medical Properties Trust, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.88, "architecture_energy": 18.116, "architecture_maturity": 45.985, "architecture_confidence": 87.592, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.81, "rotation_up": 28.24, "upward_expansion": 15.48, "deceleration": 42.98, "rotation_down": 32.01, "downward_expansion": 63.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.703333, 4.672177, 4.755902, 4.803153 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.7, "trend_reference": 4.879637, "distance_from_trend": -0.036814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.357131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.501859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.089648, "excess_performance": -0.215273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021299, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135019, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.866651, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22778841, "relative_activity": 0.854884, "balance": 0.866651, "dry_up": 0.956209, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057533, "annualized_volatility": 0.287263, "from_high_reference": -0.245829, "from_low_reference": 0.278798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.879637, "fair_value_reference": 4.357131, "structural_low": 4.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.009268, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.012692, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.335366, "worst_return": -0.24307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.024721, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.033347, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.494975, "worst_return": -0.291002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0461, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.230789, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.22451, "worst_return": -0.363778, "sufficient": true }, { 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52.258948, "activity_lines": [ 4.61, 4.681707, 4.774125, 4.83801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.84, "volume": 21567818, "typical_volume": 28598514.85, "trend": 4.905763, "fair_value": 4.386719, "relative_strength": -6.759201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.627831, "energy": 27.017083, "activity_lines": [ 4.696, 4.696262, 4.777695, 4.833653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.63, "volume": 25119104, "typical_volume": 27230639.1, "trend": 4.896992, "fair_value": 4.367065, "relative_strength": -11.785084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.722621, "energy": 22.517725, "activity_lines": [ 4.691333, 4.674665, 4.763306, 4.815862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7, "volume": 22778841, "typical_volume": 26645536.55, "trend": 4.879637, "fair_value": 4.357131, "relative_strength": -13.501859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.879781, "energy": 18.1162, "activity_lines": [ 4.703333, 4.672177, 4.755902, 4.803153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }