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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.76, "architecture_energy": 34.371, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.21, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 50.7, "rotation_down": 51.25, "downward_expansion": 76.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 294.936, 300.442545, 311.089219, 316.771244 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 266.47, "trend_reference": 327.056132, "distance_from_trend": -0.185247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 352.394521, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.867116, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227796, "excess_performance": -0.353421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24383, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.358671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227796, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.506222, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1094467, "relative_activity": 1.246144, "balance": 0.506222, "dry_up": 1.242706, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139893, "annualized_volatility": 0.388922, "from_high_reference": -0.451805, "from_low_reference": 0.009279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 327.056132, "fair_value_reference": 352.394521, 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"volume": 1545745, "typical_volume": 907629.75, "trend": 331.548844, "fair_value": 352.409074, "relative_strength": -29.368225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.23591, "energy": 25.67523, "activity_lines": [ 308.244, 308.33859, 316.410179, 320.969879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 266.47, "volume": 1094467, "typical_volume": 878282.6, "trend": 327.056132, "fair_value": 352.394521, "relative_strength": -35.867116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.760156, "energy": 34.371302, "activity_lines": [ 294.936, 300.442545, 311.089219, 316.771244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }