{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2a68c653-2b54-40c3-9444-ffb685a9813b",
    "symbol": "FRS",
    "name": "FORIS AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 61.238,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -8.957,
    "architecture_energy": 14.418,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.491,
    "architecture_confidence": 49.603,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 64.28,
        "rotation_up": 19.66,
        "upward_expansion": 24.16,
        "deceleration": 71.92,
        "rotation_down": 52.87,
        "downward_expansion": 32.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.186667,
        3.248,
        3.233619,
        3.227828
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 3.08,
    "trend_reference": 3.222,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.044072,
    "trend_direction": "Stable",
    "fair_value": 2.865888,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074711,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -14.893936,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.006452,
    "excess_performance": -0.071091,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.044072,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.074711,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062316,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.148939,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038371,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006452,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.676948,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1005,
      "relative_activity": 0.915884,
      "balance": 1.676948,
      "dry_up": 1.064887,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.072927,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.317441,
      "from_high_reference": -0.259615,
      "from_low_reference": 0.175573
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.222,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.865888,
      "structural_low": 3.0,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": -0.014389,
        "positive_rate": 0.263158,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.263158,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01313,
        "regime_survival": 0.684211,
        "best_return": 0.187097,
        "worst_return": -0.064286,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.021026,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021241,
        "regime_survival": 0.875,
        "best_return": 0.068702,
        "worst_return": -0.050725,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.010611,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.042843,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.070866,
        "worst_return": -0.059259,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.007166,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012697,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.007408,
        "worst_return": -0.021739,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-04-21",
        "end": "2023-04-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-05-05",
        "end": "2023-10-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.037314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-10-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007752,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.227273,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.266667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.134329,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.322828,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005952,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.111111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.045714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.037267,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.141304,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 2.645299,
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        "typical_volume": 1550.75,
        "trend": 2.574501,
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        "relative_strength": -13.437642,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.087907,
        "energy": 22.647349,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.193333,
          3.209091,
          3.217905,
          3.230882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 3.16,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 2417.25,
        "trend": 3.271333,
        "fair_value": 2.810431,
        "relative_strength": -12.403876,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.855015,
        "energy": 30.601615,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.176,
          3.197818,
          3.211905,
          3.222495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 3.2,
        "volume": 407,
        "typical_volume": 1819.35,
        "trend": 3.253333,
        "fair_value": 2.814358,
        "relative_strength": -11.056796,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -45.334585,
        "energy": 34.755545,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.173333,
          3.194909,
          3.209619,
          3.217892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 3.18,
        "volume": 253,
        "typical_volume": 1831.4,
        "trend": 3.236667,
        "fair_value": 2.818033,
        "relative_strength": -9.793833,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -45.584662,
        "energy": 32.818793,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.170667,
          3.189091,
          3.205429,
          3.213161
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 3.28,
        "volume": 4794,
        "typical_volume": 2050.2,
        "trend": 3.229333,
        "fair_value": 2.822349,
        "relative_strength": -10.053468,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.148491,
        "energy": 8.486685,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.210667,
          3.204364,
          3.210857,
          3.215957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 3.18,
        "volume": 1090,
        "typical_volume": 2043.5,
        "trend": 3.222,
        "fair_value": 2.8259,
        "relative_strength": -13.054626,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -32.946118,
        "energy": 13.168234,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.208,
          3.200364,
          3.207143,
          3.212774
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 3.1,
        "volume": 15,
        "typical_volume": 1881.85,
        "trend": 3.213333,
        "fair_value": 2.828939,
        "relative_strength": -13.565589,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.283571,
        "energy": 22.853533,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.174667,
          3.181091,
          3.196571,
          3.204903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 3.18,
        "volume": 105,
        "typical_volume": 1755.25,
        "trend": 3.203333,
        "fair_value": 2.83249,
        "relative_strength": -10.279579,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.285453,
        "energy": 18.180095,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.172,
          3.177818,
          3.194667,
          3.202753
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 3.16,
        "volume": 109,
        "typical_volume": 1760.7,
        "trend": 3.204,
        "fair_value": 2.836037,
        "relative_strength": -11.503522,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.180862,
        "energy": 33.399953,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.164,
          3.173091,
          3.190571,
          3.199957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 3.1,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 1720.2,
        "trend": 3.204667,
        "fair_value": 2.839076,
        "relative_strength": -11.531825,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.253772,
        "energy": 47.043002,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.137333,
          3.160364,
          3.181143,
          3.193247
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 3.68,
        "volume": 6682,
        "typical_volume": 1410.6,
        "trend": 3.222667,
        "fair_value": 2.845956,
        "relative_strength": 0.945299,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.058682,
        "energy": 54.526105,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.316,
          3.253818,
          3.226952,
          3.223914
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 3.44,
        "volume": 763,
        "typical_volume": 1448.75,
        "trend": 3.232667,
        "fair_value": 2.85105,
        "relative_strength": -2.513538,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.522004,
        "energy": 58.495825,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.381333,
          3.293455,
          3.247714,
          3.237935
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 3.3,
        "volume": 3132,
        "typical_volume": 1605.35,
        "trend": 3.236,
        "fair_value": 2.855371,
        "relative_strength": -5.062105,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.721327,
        "energy": 52.890888,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.377333,
          3.302545,
          3.254095,
          3.24228
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.24,
        "volume": 210,
        "typical_volume": 1077.2,
        "trend": 3.237333,
        "fair_value": 2.859554,
        "relative_strength": -7.154864,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.899788,
        "energy": 38.794241,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.345333,
          3.298909,
          3.254476,
          3.242538
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.16,
        "volume": 327,
        "typical_volume": 1056.65,
        "trend": 3.230667,
        "fair_value": 2.862977,
        "relative_strength": -10.607363,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.592716,
        "energy": 13.131772,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.281333,
          3.279636,
          3.247714,
          3.237548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.08,
        "volume": 1005,
        "typical_volume": 1097.3,
        "trend": 3.222,
        "fair_value": 2.865888,
        "relative_strength": -14.893936,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -8.956897,
        "energy": 14.41772,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.186667,
          3.248,
          3.233619,
          3.227828
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}