{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a6ad581-533d-4c20-bdf6-4a452a506256", "symbol": "XSI", "name": "iShares Short Term Strategic Fixed Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.706, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.394, "architecture_energy": 52.185, "architecture_maturity": 2.163, "architecture_confidence": 79.395, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.63, "rotation_up": 9.02, "upward_expansion": 9.39, "deceleration": 40.42, "rotation_down": 67.06, "downward_expansion": 82.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.627191, 16.655701, 16.668104, 16.669835 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.65, "trend_reference": 16.68409, "distance_from_trend": -0.002043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.968335, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.354017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004887, "excess_performance": -0.125308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 7.8e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.075758, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4800, "relative_activity": 1.099656, "balance": 1.075758, "dry_up": 0.664376, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004161, "annualized_volatility": 0.035806, "from_high_reference": -0.014019, "from_low_reference": 0.017558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.68409, "fair_value_reference": 15.968335, "structural_low": 16.47748, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.009156, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012637, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.026318, "worst_return": -0.021266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000937, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016478, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051454, "worst_return": -0.04603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011268, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055308, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.054411, "worst_return": -0.084785, 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"trend": 16.690426, "fair_value": 15.915062, "relative_strength": -10.259657, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.738321, "energy": 12.661056, "activity_lines": [ 16.706096, 16.701795, 16.682007, 16.686616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.662828, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 6835.0, "trend": 16.690933, "fair_value": 15.928578, "relative_strength": -9.802046, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.261079, "energy": 9.92744, "activity_lines": [ 16.687438, 16.696744, 16.681214, 16.684835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.573135, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 4780.0, "trend": 16.688124, "fair_value": 15.941531, "relative_strength": -10.142285, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.111794, "energy": 36.90098, "activity_lines": [ 16.644225, 16.675986, 16.672946, 16.677235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.610001, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 4405.0, "trend": 16.686588, "fair_value": 15.954777, "relative_strength": -9.121595, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.260288, "energy": 50.593712, "activity_lines": [ 16.625287, 16.661814, 16.668787, 16.672195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.65, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 4365.0, "trend": 16.68409, "fair_value": 15.968335, "relative_strength": -11.354017, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.393623, "energy": 52.184841, "activity_lines": [ 16.627191, 16.655701, 16.668104, 16.669835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }