{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a6af5de-8417-4c75-9c98-aa64332a2471", "symbol": "PMO", "name": "Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 85.501, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.18, "architecture_energy": 13.876, "architecture_maturity": 23.034, "architecture_confidence": 67.337, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.75, "rotation_up": 19.68, "upward_expansion": 29.08, "deceleration": 72.57, "rotation_down": 49.37, "downward_expansion": 26.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.377951, 10.462042, 10.435258, 10.414857 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.39, "trend_reference": 10.407491, "distance_from_trend": -0.001681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.649444, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.735852, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007693, "excess_performance": -0.133318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008103, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.009472, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 361449, "relative_activity": 1.151742, "balance": 1.009472, "dry_up": 0.972742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02305, "annualized_volatility": 0.103633, "from_high_reference": -0.037025, "from_low_reference": 0.105853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.407491, "fair_value_reference": 9.649444, "structural_low": 9.944262, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016132, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.004439, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.109984, "worst_return": -0.03285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068764, "worst_return": -0.154312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052332, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.101553, "worst_return": -0.059759, 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"activity_lines": [ 10.523589, 10.527973, 10.448019, 10.428237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.23, "volume": 363433, "typical_volume": 304439.95, "trend": 10.409851, "fair_value": 9.639047, "relative_strength": -8.189125, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.155531, "energy": 12.220478, "activity_lines": [ 10.409895, 10.480732, 10.43359, 10.416138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.39, "volume": 361449, "typical_volume": 313828.15, "trend": 10.407491, "fair_value": 9.649444, "relative_strength": -9.735852, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.179535, "energy": 13.875911, "activity_lines": [ 10.377951, 10.462042, 10.435258, 10.414857 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }